April 27, 2021 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Rainfall was meager across the USVI this week, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.07 - 0.20 inch across St. Thomas and St. John. The Henry Rohlsen airport at St. Croix had only 0.04 inch of rain, while the CoCoRaHS stations had a bit more at 0.51-0.73 inch. Month-to-date rainfall totals at Cyril E. King Airport at St. Thomas was at 81.8% of normal rainfall, while year-to-date was at 57.9% of normal. Henry Rohlsen airport (St. Croix) month-to-date rainfall total was 34.5% of normal, while year-to-date was 54.9% of normal. Groundwater levels have continued to decrease, reaching levels last seen in 2016. SPI values for Cyril E. King airport at the 3, 9, and 12-month periods were indicative of abnormally dry conditions. The Henry E. Rohlsen airport's SPI values at all levels were indicative of abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought. The Windswept Beach, St. John's SPI values were indicative of abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought at the 3,6, and 12 month periods. Severe short and long-term drought continued to affect St. Thomas and St. Croix, while St. John remained in severe short-term drought.

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Koror, Palau had 1.43 inches of rain this week, resulting in a month-to-date rainfall total of 20.95 inches. Drought free conditions remain since the month-to-date total exceeds the monthly 8 inches threshold to meet most water needs.

Dry conditions persisted across parts of the Marianas this week, with Saipan’s manual gauge (0.23 inch) and Rota (0.45 inch) receiving less than half an inch of rain. Guam and Saipan’s NPS had the most rain at 0.85 inch and 1.35 inches, respectively. Since this week marked Rota’s third consecutive week with rainfall totals less than half an inch, Rota's drought classification was changed to moderate short-term drought, while Guam and Saipan continued in moderate short-term drought.

Across the Federated States of Micronesia, Pohnpei, Kosrae, Lukunoch, Kapingamarangi, and Nukuoro had a wet week with rainfall totals surpassing 4 inches. Although Kapingamarangi has been receiving beneficial rains the last three weeks, it continued in moderate long-term drought as vegetation in the region continues to recover. Meanwhile, the other locations continued in drought free conditions. Chuuk Lagoon had over 1 inch of rain this week, while Yap, Fananu, Pingelap, Ulithi, and Woleai had less than 1 inch of rain. Although this was a dry week for these locations, drought is not a concern at this time.

This was a dry week for the Marshall Islands with little to no rain in some locations. Kwajalein had the most rain at 1.39 inches, while Jaluit and Wotje had no rain. Wotje’s lack of rain secured another week of extreme short-term drought, while Kwajalein continued in severe drought. The other locations continued to be drought free.

Pago Pago had less than 1 inch of rain, while Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge had 1.43 and 1.45 inches, respectively. Drought free conditions continued across Tutuila as the month-to-date rainfall totals surpassed the threshold of 4 inches to meet most water needs.

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