April 5, 2022 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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A wetter-than-normal winter across the U.S. Virgin Islands brought some limited drought relief. Typically, only 12 to 15% of the territory’s annual rainfall typically occurs from January to March. This year, January 1 – March 31 rainfall totaled 7.39 inches (115% of normal) at King Airport on St. Thomas and 7.89 inches (161%) at Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix. The heaviest winter rainfall generally occurred in early February; prior to that rain, drought intensity peaked at D3 (extreme) on St. Thomas and St. Croix, and D2 (severe) on St. John.

Currently, D2-L (severe long-term drought) is in place across St. Croix, while D1-L (moderate long-term drought) exists on St. Thomas and St. John. Groundwater shortages – indicative of long-term drought – remain a problem, especially on St. Croix, which is a key reason for the persistence of D2. According to the U.S. Geological Survey’s Adventure 28 Well on St. Croix, depth to water reached 31.25 feet on April 4, greatest at any time since at least 2016. The Susannaberg DPW 3 Well on St. John is on the cusp of a 20-foot depth to water (currently near 19.5 feet) for the first time since mid-2017.

During the March 29 – April 4 drought-monitoring period, occasional, generally light showers occurred across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Seven-day totals included 0.44 inch at King Airport and 0.29 inch at Rohlsen Airport. More than a dozen volunteer (CoCoRaHS) observers reported 7-day rainfall ranging from 0.06 to 0.90 inch.

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American Samoa is coming off a very hot March, with Pago Pago International Airport setting an all-time record with 26 consecutive days – February 26 to March 23 – with a high of 90°F or greater. However, rain continued to fall during the hot spell, with the airport reporting a monthly total of 5.50 inches. In the last week, somewhat drier weather developed, although around an inch of rain fell during the drought-monitoring period at the National Park Service observation sites of Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge. For now, American Samoa remains free of dryness and drought.

Meanwhile, the Republic of Palau continues to receive ample rain, with more than 10 inches reported during March at multiple observation sites, and additional showers noted in early April.

In the Mariana Islands, there was a brief increase in shower activity in late March and early April. During the drought-monitoring period, several 1- to 2-inch rainfall totals were noted across Guam and other islands, with Dededo reporting at least 2.43 inches. Fire concerns were temporarily alleviated by the rain, which briefly lowered Guam’s Keetch-Byram Drought Index below 600, down from well over 700 the previous week. In recent days, however, mostly dry, breezy conditions have returned across the Marianas, leading to the National Weather Service’s issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Guam. As a result, there are no changes to the depiction, which includes moderate drought (D1-S) for Guam and abnormal dryness (D0-S) for Rota and Saipan.

Across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), forecasters have been monitoring the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Invest 95W for several days. The disturbance, which has the potential to become an organized tropical system, has been delivering periodic heavy showers across various parts of the FSM. Rainfall during the drought-monitoring period totaled 7 to 10 inches in locations such as Pingelap, Pohnpei, and Kosrae. Abnormal dryness (D0-S) was removed from Yap, where March rainfall totaled 7.23 inches and the total during the 7-day period was 2.87 inches. D0-S was also eradicated from Ulithi, which received 5.19 inches over the last 7 days. However, D0-S was retained for Kapingamarangi, where the 3.00-inch weekly total followed a drier-than-normal March. No analysis was made for Fananu due to erratic reporting of rainfall data in recent weeks.

Finally, generally wet weather prevailed across the Marshall Islands, with more than 9 inches of rain reported during the drought-monitoring period at Ailinglapalap. Wotje received beneficial rain, with 2.44 inches reported in the last 7 days. Although extreme drought (D3-SL) was retained for Wotje, improvement may soon occur if showery conditions continue. Data from Utirik remains missing.

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