October 25, 2022 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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In St. Thomas, the Cyril E King Airport had 0.65 inch of rain for the week and 1.66 inches (or 41.1% of normal) for the month-to-date. Year-to-date rainfall was at 89.5% of normal. Rainfall across the CoCoRaHS stations ranged between 0 to 0.95 inch. SPI values for the 1 month were indicative of severe drought, while drought free conditions were indicative at the 3, 6, and 9 months. SPI at the 12-month period is indicative of abnormally dry conditions. Groundwater levels at the Grade School 3 Well were steadily decreasing. St. Thomas drought classification was changed to short-term abnormally dry conditions.

The Henry Rohlsen airport in St. Croix received only 0.34 inch of rain this week, resulting in a month-to-date rainfall total of 1.77 inches or 48.1% of normal. Year-to-date total was 106.3% of normal. CoCoRaHS stations rainfall totals ranged between 0.04 to 0.70 inch for the week. SPI values at the 1 month were indicative of moderate drought, while the 3, 6, 9, and 12 months were indicative of drought free conditions. Despite some improvement on groundwater levels during September and early October, the levels are well below those seen in 2016. St. Croix's drought classification was changed to short and long-term abnormally dry conditions.

Drought free conditions persisted across St. John. The Windswept Beach had the most rainfall this week at 1.25 inches. The month-to-date total was 3.35 inches or 72.8% of normal. Year-to-date totals were 90.8% of normal. SPI values at the 1 and 12 months were indicative of abnormally dry conditions, while the 3, 6, and 9 months showed drought free conditions.

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This was a wet week for most locations across the US Affiliated Pacific Islands, with rainfall totals surpassing their weekly threshold to meet most water needs. Pohnpei (6.33 inches), Fananu (8.48 inches), Yap (13.08 inches), and Pingelap (7.59 inches), in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), as well as Airai in Palau (7.26 inches) had the most notable precipitation amounts this week with rainfall totals surpassing 6 inches. These locations along with the Mariana Islands, Chuuk and Kosrae in the FSM, American Samoa, and most locations across the Marshall Islands continued to be free of drought.

In the Marshall Islands, Wotje was the only location to receive less than 1 inch of rain. This week marked the third consecutive week of little to no rain, resulting in a month-to-date rainfall total of only 3.10 inches. For this reason, Wotje's drought classification was changed to short-term abnormally dry conditions.

In the FSM, Kapingamarangi' continued to be in short and long-term severe drought since no rain fell this week. Lukunoch remained in short-term abnormally dry conditions since rainfall totals were less than 2 inches.

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