March 21, 2023 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Rain was scarce for parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands this week with rainfall totals less than 1 inch. In St. Thomas, the Cyril E. King Airport had the most rain with 0.88 inch of rain. The month-to-date rainfall total at the airport was 1.11 inches or 96% of normal and 3.85 inches (68% of normal) for the year-to-date. Several CoCoRaHs stations had weekly rainfall totals between 0.14 to 0.25 inch and monthly totals between 0.29 to 0.63 inch. SPI values for the airport are indicative of drought free conditions at the 1, 6, 9, and 12 months, while the 3-month period is indicative of abnormally dry conditions. Despite indices showing some drought improvement, local input suggests that vegetation is showing signs of stress and trees and bushes are losing their leaves. According to the USGS Grade School 3 Well, groundwater levels are slowly decreasing as well. For these reasons, moderate drought conditions continued for St. Thomas.

The drought classification for St. Croix was changed from moderate to severe drought this week due to lack of rain. In St. Croix, the Henry Rohlsen Airport had no rain this week. The month-to-date rainfall total is 0.01 inch, which is only 1.1% of normal rainfall for the month. The year-to-date total of 2.68 inches is 63% of normal rainfall. CoCoRaHs stations across St.Croix had weekly rainfall totals that ranged between 0.01 to 0.21 inch and monthly totals between 0.03 to 0.35 inch. SPI values at the 1, 3, and 6 months are indicative of moderate to exceptional drought, while the 9 and 12 months were indicative of drought free conditions. Groundwater levels were also decreasing and information from a local newspaper suggests that there are growing concerns of insufficient water for irrigation from farmers.

Abnormally dry conditions continued across St. John this week. CoCoRaHs station VI-SJ-5 had 0.09 inch of rain and 0.26 inch at VI-SJ-3. The month-to-date totals were 0.18 inch (VI-SJ-5) and 0.35 inch (VI-SJ-3; 17.9% of normal). SPI value is indicative of extreme drought at the 1-month period, but drought free for the 3, 6, 9, and 12 months.

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Drought free conditions continued across Palau. Koror had 5 inches of rain this week, resulting in a month-to-date total of 9.56 inches.

Rainfall was scarce across parts of the Marianas. Rota and Saipan had only 0.23 and 0.30 inch of rain so far this week, respectively. Guam had the most rain at 1.08 inches for the week and a month-to-date rainfall total of 3.86 inches, which is close to the 4 inches monthly threshold to meet most water needs. Meanwhile, Rota and Guam had a little over 1 inch for the month-to-date total. Drought free conditions persisted for Guam and Rota at this time. Rota had over 6 inches of rain in Feb. Saipan continued to be free of drought since last week they received close to 1 inch of rain and there were no drought impacts reported at this time.

Across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), beneficial rains fell across several locations with rainfall totals over 2 inches. Kapingamarangi had the most rain (4.18 inches) this week. Moderate drought was not changed since it had less than 4 inches of rain in February and the dry conditions continued at least through mid-March. Similarly, Lukunoch and Pingelap continued to be abnormally dry despite having some recent beneficial rains. However, if wet conditions persist next week, a 1-category drought improvement will be considered for Kapingamarangi, Lukunoch and Pingelap. Drought free conditions persisted across the other locations across the FSM.

Much of the Marshall Islands had a dry week. Wotje and Kwajalein continued to be in moderate drought since they had little to no rain. Ailinglaplap and Jaluit had less than half an inch; however, drought free conditions persisted for these locations since Ailinglaplap had over 4 inches of rain last week and Jaluit had some beneficial rains the last two weeks. Mili had 4 days of missing data; however, drought free conditions were unchanged since it had close to 4 inches of rain last week, 6.89 inches for the month-to-date, and over 21 inches during Feb 2023. Majuro was the only location to have a wet week with over 4 inches of rain this week. Drought free conditions continued for Majuro.

Drought was not a concern across American Samoa since all three locations had over 1 inches of rain this week and over 4 inches of rain for the month-to-date.

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