March 28, 2023 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Weekly rainfall totals were less than half an inch across the US Virgin Islands. The Cyril E. King Airport had a month-to-date total that was 81% of normal and 66% of normal for the year-to-date. SPI values were indicative of drought free conditions at the 1, 6, 9, and 12 months, while the SPI value at 3-month period was indicative of abnormally dry conditions. For this week, short-term moderate drought continued for St. Thomas.

Similarly, St. John's drought classification of abnormally dry conditions continued this week. Month-to-date rainfall totals were less than 1", while the year-to-date rainfall totals were over 6". SPI values were indicative of drought free conditions at the 3, 6, 9, and 12 months, while the SPI value at the 1-month is indicative of abnormally dry conditions.

St. Croix continued in short-term severe drought this week. The Henry Rohlsen airport in St. Croix had 0.14" of rain for the month-to-date (10% of normal) and 2.81" (61% of normal) since January 2023. Meanwhile, several CoCoRaHS stations across the island had year-to-date totals between 2.71" and 7.09". SPI values are indicative of moderate to exceptional drought at the 1, 3, and 6 months, with drought free conditions at the 9 and 12 month periods. Vegetation is stressed and yellowing across St. Croix and St. John, there were reports of cracks in the soil in St. Croix, and groundwater levels are steadily decreasing across all three islands.

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Drought was not a concern across the Republic of Palau, the Marianas, and American Samoa since these locations had close to or over their specific weekly thresholds (2" for Palau and 1" for the Marianas and American Samoa) to meet most water needs.

In the Federated States of Micronesia, there were several locations that had over 5 or more days missing. These include: Kapingamarangi (no data), Kosrae (no data), Nukuoro (6 days), Pingelap (5 days) and Pohnpei (6 days). Since there wasn't enough data to make an analysis for these locations this week, their drought classification from the March 21 drought analysis were unchanged.

Lukunor's drought classification was changed from abnormally dry conditions to drought free conditions since they had over 4" of rain this week and over 8" so far this month, surpassing their weekly (2") and monthly (8") thresholds to meet most water needs. Ulithi, Woleai, Yap, and Chuuk Lagoon also continued to be drought free.

Across the Marshall Islands, Jaluit, Mili, Majuro, and Ailinglaplap continued to be free of drought despite some locations having a dry week (less than 1 inch of rain). Wotje's drought classification was changed to short-term severe drought this week after receiving only 0.80" of rain -- the seventh consecutive week with little to no rain. Wotje's month-to-date rainfall total for March was also 0.80" and the January and February monthly totals were less than 4" and 2", respectively. Similarly, Kwajalein had 0.11" for the week, securing another week of short-term moderate drought.

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