January 2, 2024 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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A high-pressure ridge inhibited precipitation across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (December 27-January 2). Fragments of moisture moving in the otherwise dry northeast flow created localized showers, but rainfall amounts were mostly low. Based on data available at the time of this report, weekly rainfall totals ranged from a tenth to a third of an inch across the islands, with a couple stations on St. Thomas and St. Croix reporting half of an inch. December monthly rainfall totals ranged from about an inch on St. Croix to nearly 4 inches on St. Thomas, with St. John mostly having between 2 and 3 inches of rain. December totals were generally below normal on St. Croix and St. John but above normal on St. Thomas.

According to USGS well observations, the groundwater level on all 3 islands steadily fell this week. Depth to water on January 1: 6.14 feet on St. John, 8.21 feet on St. Thomas, and 33.23 feet on St. Croix. Satellite VHI showed a few areas of vegetative stress.

With December and year-to-date precipitation totals still well below normal, short- and long-term moderate drought (D1-SL) continued on St. Croix. December has been wet but long-term precipitation deficits remained, so long-term severe drought (D2-L) continued on St. Thomas, while St. John continued with a D-Nothing status (no drought or abnormal dryness).

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The weather conditions across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (December 27-January 2) were similar to last week. Rain kept mostly south of Micronesia, associated with a near-equatorial trough (NET), while trade-wind disturbances (troughs, wind surge, or shear line) brought rain to parts of the region and a weakening South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and unstable air generated showers around and over American Samoa. But for most islands in Micronesia, a dry trade-wind pattern dominated the weather. This is the dry season and fire danger is increasing as vegetation continues to dry out, especially in the Marianas.

Based on data available at the time of this report, weekly rainfall totals were mostly below the weekly minimum needed to meet most water needs, which is 1 inch in the Marianas and American Samoa and 2 inches elsewhere in Micronesia. Guam was wet with 1.98 inches of rain this week while the rest of the Marianas stations had weekly rainfall totals from a half to two-thirds of an inch. The Republic of Palau was wet. Most of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) were dry, with weekly precipitation totals ranging from a tenth of an inch at Pingelap to 1.23 inches at Ulithi. In the Marshall Islands, Ailinglaplap was wet with 2.53 inches of rain this week, but the other stations were dry with reports ranging from 0.26 inch at Mili to 1.95 inches at Wotje. One to four inches of rain was reported in American Samoa.

December 2023 was wet (more than the 4-inch or 8-inch monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs) across American Samoa and most of the Marianas and Palau. Most of the FSM was dry, while parts of the Marshall Islands were wet and other parts dry. December 2023 ranked as the third driest December in 73 years of data at Yap, seventh driest in 73 years at Pohnpei, fourth driest in 38 years at Pingelap, and seventh driest in 41 years at Ulithi. November-December 2023 was the third driest such 2-month period at Ulithi, fifth driest at Yap, and sixth driest at Pingelap.

Changes in the USAPI include the end of abnormal dryness at Ailinglaplap, which had a wet week, while abnormal dryness began at Pohnpei, Lukunor, Nukuoro, and Pingelap, where this week marked the third consecutive dry week (three consecutive dry weeks is a trigger for the initiation of D0-S). In addition, reports of water shortages have been received from Pohnpei, especially in places that depend on water wells. Moderate drought continued on Yap, which had its sixth consecutive dry week, and Wotje, where this week marked the seventh consecutive dry week. Severe drought continued on Ulithi, which had its ninth consecutive dry week. The rest of the reporting stations were free of drought and abnormal dryness.

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