February 20, 2024 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Tranquil weather returned across the U.S. Virgin Islands, following the previous week’s heavy rain. During the 7-day drought-monitoring period ending February 20, rainfall at all official and volunteer (CoCoRaHS) observation sites ranged from 0.00 to 0.04 inch. However, there were no changes to the depiction—long-term moderate drought (D1-L) continued on St. Thomas, while neither dryness nor drought was observed on St. John and St. Croix—as improvements from the early-February downpours continued to be reflected in groundwater and vegetation health. At the U.S. Geological Survey Adventure 28 Well on St. Croix, depth to water improved from 34.23 to 31.71 feet between February 3 and 14.

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El Niño-related short-term drought continued to gradually expand and intensify across portions of the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, with burgeoning impacts on vegetation health and fresh-water supplies. A notable exception was south of the Equator, in American Samoa, where heavy rain continued. During the first 20 days of February, 22.99 inches of rain fell at American Samoa’s Pago Pago International Airport.

Meanwhile, changes in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) for the drought-monitoring period ending February 20 included adding abnormal dryness (D0) for Nukuoro and Chuuk Lagoon, as well as deterioration from abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought (from D0 to D1) for Lukunor. Less than one-half inch of rain fell during the week at all FSM sites, except Kosrae (more than 5 inches) and Kapingamarangi (about an inch). In places such as Yap, Ulithi, and Pingelap, where drier-than-normal conditions began earlier, starting in November 2022, severe drought (D2) was solidly entrenched. Moderate drought (D1) was noted for Woleai and Pohnpei.

In the Mariana Islands, mid-February showers—with weekly rainfall totals near an inch—temporarily stabilized conditions, with moderate drought (D1) being reported again this week for Guam, Rota, and Saipan. Nevertheless, the Marianas are at risk of further drought deterioration, amid frequently dry, breezy conditions. Winds recently gusted to 40 mph at the international airports on Guam (on February 15) and Saipan (on February 14), and Guam had a Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) value of 663 on February 21, reflective of a very high fire danger.

Enough precipitation has been falling in the Republic of Palau to hold off on the introduction of abnormal dryness, although rainfall intensity has decreased in recent weeks.

Finally, no changes were introduced in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), despite a continuation of drier-than-normal weather. By February 20, the RMI depiction included severe drought (D2) for Wotje; moderate drought (D1) for Kwajalein; and abnormally dry conditions (D0) for Jaluit, Majuro, and Mili. Weekly rainfall throughout the RMI totaled less than one-half inch at all observation sites. For Majuro, reservoir storage has been somewhat resilient since the last heavy rain fell in early February, with 27.3 million gallons of fresh water available on February 15.

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