August 27, 2024 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Given heavy rains from Ernesto last week, conditions remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Well levels at U.S. Geological Survey monitoring sites on each island have remained elevated since last week, though depth-to-water has fallen slightly at the measuring site on St. Thomas. Windswept Beach on St. John received 1.2 inches of rain this week, while a CoCoRaHs observation site east of Cruz Bay received 0.89 inches. On St. Thomas, rainfall amounts from CoCoRaHs observations ranged from 0.41 to 0.71 inches. Rainfall amounts on St. Croix ranged from 0.55 to 1.11 inches.

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The pattern of drier weather at Pago Pago compared to Siufaga and Toa Ridges continued this week, though rainfall at the two ridge measuring sites has been sufficient the last few weeks to avoid the development of abnormal dryness, despite drier weather this week. Pago Pago recorded 0.57 inches of rain, while Siufaga and Toa Ridges received 0.84 and 0.73 inches.

By the end of the week, Koror had received 1.03 inches. Conditions have been a bit drier recently, but no drought or abnormal dryness has developed.

The Mariana Islands were free of abnormal dryness of drought this week. Saipan Airport reported over 3 inches of rain at the beginning of the reporting period, marking a second consecutive wet week and the end of abnormal dryness. Rainfall on Guam ranged from 0.77 to 2.49 inches this week. Rainfall on Rota totaled 2.29 inches this week.

In Yap, heavier rains fell this week, with 3.45 inches reported. However, the preceding weeks were quite dry, which along with long-term dryness were causing multiple impacts. Thus, Yap was depicted this week as having short- and long-term abnormal dryness. Ulithi reported 0.62 inches of rain this week after a mostly dry last couple of weeks, and short- and long-term abnormal dryness developed. Mostly dry weather occurred in Woleai this week, with only 0.06 inches of rain being reported. However, with recent wet weeks before this, no abnormal dryness has developed. No data were available for Fananu this week, so no Drought Monitor depiction was made there. In Chuuk, 6.99 inches of rain were reported this week. In Lukunor, over 3 inches of rain fell this week, helping to partly refill reservoirs, though short-term abnormal dryness continued. In Nukuoro, only 0.56 inches of rain fell this week, marking the third out of the last four weeks with less than 2 inches of rainfall. Given 3 inches of rain last week, abnormal dryness has not yet developed. In Kapingamarangi, abnormal dryness intensified into short-term moderate drought after only 0.12 inches of rain fell this week. In Pohnpei, 3.1 inches of rain fell, which likely helped to improve conditions. However, given how far below normal August rainfall has been, short-term abnormal dryness continued. In Pingelap, only 0.19 inches of rain fell this week, though with over 4 last week, conditions remained free of abnormal dryness or drought. In Kosrae, 1.76 inches of rain fell, marking the third consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. However, given wet conditions in July, abnormal dryness has not yet developed.

In Kwajalein, 1.2 inches of rain were reported this week after 3.56 inches occurred last week, and it remained free of abnormal dryness or drought. In Ailinglapalap, 2.55 inches of rain were reported this week after the previous two weeks saw less than 2 inches of rain, and conditions remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. In Jaluit, only 0.4 inches of rain were reported after 2.87 inches fell last week. While abnormal dryness has not yet developed, conditions have been drying recently there. Wotje received 1 inch of rain this week after 3.08 inches last week, and conditions remained free of abnormal dryness or drought. In Majuro, 0.68 inches of rain fell this week; however, given that over 2 inches fell last week, abnormal dryness has not yet developed. In Utirik and Mili, no data were reported, so no Drought Monitor depiction was made in either location.

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