October 8, 2024 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought. CoCoRaHS observers reported 0.96 inches and 1.40 inches on St. Thomas, 0.89 inches and 1.37 inches on St. John and from 0.67 inches to 2.76 inches on St. Croix.

The Standardized Precipitation Index for the islands indicated that St. Thomas was mildly dry at one month. Dryness is intensifying for St. John’s Windswept Beach on the one-month time scale, but no dryness at longer time scales.

Well levels for St. Thomas and St. John were generally trending lower in recent weeks, while the level of the well on St. Croix was rising.

The Vegetation Health Index for the week of Sept. 29 indicated small areas of stress toward the western end of St. Croix, and relatively normal conditions on St. Thomas and St. John.

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The Republic of Palau received 0.50 inches at Koror COOP and 0.38 inches at Palau IAP. Both locations received enough rainfall in previous weeks to have adequate water supplies. Two inches of rain per week is required to meet minimum water needs.

For the Mariana Islands, all locations received 2 inches to more than 5 inches of precipitation over the past week. These locations require an inch weekly.

The Federal States of Micronesia were quite dry, apart from Chuuk and Pohnpei receiving more than two inches. Six locations—Kapingamarangi, Kosrae, Lukunor, Nukuoro, Pingelap, and Woleai—have had below-normal precipitation for the past three weeks, warranting the introduction of abnormal dryness for those sites. Ulithi and Yap collected 0.43 inches and 0.01 inches in their respective rain gauges, but received ample rain the previous week to meet their water needs.

The Marshall Islands were mixed, but received enough rain recently that water supplies should be adequate for most locations. Jaluit remained abnormally dry and received just 0.41 inches. Ailinglaplap, Kwajalein and Majuro all received 3 to over 4 inches of rain.

American Samoa received abundant rainfall last week, leaving these locations in good stead even if precipitation was on the low side this week. Pago Pago received 0.25 inches, Siufaga Ridge got 1.11 inches and Toa Ridge reported 0.81 inches. These islands need an inch of rain per week to meet minimum water needs.

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