October 22, 2024 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Over the last 2 months, drier-than-normal conditions have developed across the U.S. Virgin Islands, during what is typically the wettest time of year. However, months of wet weather preceding the dryness have muted impacts until recently. On St. John and St. Croix, precipitation deficits, vegetation stress, and groundwater shortages have not yet risen to the level of short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S). On St. Thomas, however, D0-S has been introduced due to the short-term Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values falling below -1, as well as depth to water at the U.S Geological Survey’s Grade School 3 well topping 10 feet for the first time since April 20. Depth to water for that well has increased more than 8.6 feet since August 15. Additionally, farmers on St. Thomas are reporting recent increases in vegetation stress due to hot, windy weather, as well as soil cracks starting to form. In neighboring Puerto Rico, San Juan reported a maximum temperature of 90°F or higher each day from September 9 – October 22, which for that location is a record-breaking span of 44 consecutive days.

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An active pattern has been in place across Micronesia, leading to the formation of Tropical Storm Trami west of Guam, as well as a disturbance (formally known as Invest 98W) near Chuuk. In the Marianas, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches were commonly observed during the drought-monitoring period ending October 22. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches were noted across the Republic of the Marshall Islands, with weekly amounts of 4.33 inches at Wotje and 3.85 inches at Jaluit resulting in the elimination of abnormal, short-term dryness (D0-S). Highly variable rainfall was observed across the Federated States of Micronesia, with D0-S persisting at Kapingamarangi and Pingelap. Meanwhile, D0-S was eradicated from Nukuoro, where weekly rainfall totaled 10.00 inches, and Lukunor. Wet weather extended into the Republic of Palau. In contrast, 3 weeks of mostly dry weather across American Samoa resulted in the introduction of abnormal, short-term dryness (D0-S), despite antecedent September wetness. American Samoa has also been dealing with hot weather, including a trio of daily-record highs (90, 91, and 90°F) at Pago Pago International Airport from October 19-21.

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