November 26, 2024 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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A polar trough and tropical wave brought rain to the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 20-26). Rainfall amounts varied from a few tenths of an inch on the northern islands to over 2 inches in the south on St. Croix. November has been very wet, with monthly rainfall totals so far about two times normal, and groundwater levels remain high. All 3 islands continued free of drought and abnormal dryness.

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In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), sufficient rain has fallen over the last several months to keep most islands free of drought and abnormal dryness. Some southern parts of Micronesia have experienced a drying trend in the last month or two. During this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 20-26), several surface troughs moved in the easterly trade winds across Micronesia. They interacted with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Marshall Islands, producing abundant rainfall over the Marshalls and some portions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), while an active trough brought frequent rain to American Samoa. The troughs were not as vigorous to the west and north, so weekly rainfall totals (as of the date of this analysis) were an inch or less over the Marianas and central to eastern parts of the FSM.

Recent weeks have been dry (below the weekly minimum of 2 inches needed to meet most water needs), and November has been dry (below the monthly minimum), at Chuuk and Kapingamarangi, where D0-S (abnormal dryness) continues, and at Kosrae, where D0-S began this week. No analysis could be made at Fananu due to missing data, but D-Nothing (no drought or abnormal dryness) continued at all other locations in the FSM due to a wet month or wet conditions in recent weeks.

The month of November has been wet (above the monthly minimum) in the Marianas and Republic of Palau and at Tutuila (American Samoa), so D-Nothing continues there. In the Marshall Islands, Jaluit was wet this week but previous weeks were dry and November is below the monthly minimum, so D0-S continued. No analysis could be made at Mili and Utirik due to no data. The other Marshall Island locations were either wet this week or have had a wet November, so D-Nothing continued.

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