January 14, 2025 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Weather Summary: On January 9 and 10, a low pressure system tracked along the Gulf Coast and resulted in widespread precipitation (1 to 2.5 inches, liquid equivalent) from eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley east to the Florida Panhandle. On the northern extent of this storm, snow blanketed areas from Oklahoma and Arkansas to north Georgia. This precipitation during the second week of January supported drought improvement. However, drought expanded and intensified for the Florida Peninsula, eastern North Carolina, west-central Texas, and the Southwest. During the first two weeks of January, multiple Arctic surface highs shifted south from Canada and temperatures (January 1-13) averaged 4 to 8 degrees F below normal for much of the Great Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. A very dry start to the wet season continued to affect southern California with worsening drought conditions, periodic Santa Ana winds, and large wildfires. Enhanced trade winds, typical during a La Niña winter, resulted in improving drought for the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

Northeast: Following the winter storm that affected the Mid-Atlantic on January 6, mostly dry weather prevailed this past week from the Mid-Atlantic north to New England. Therefore, no changes were made to nearly all of the Northeast region. Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continues for portions of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

Southeast: A 1-category improvement was made to southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and South Georgia where more than 1.5 inches of rainfall occurred this past week and a favorable response was evident in soil moisture. No changes were made to northern parts of Alabama and Georgia which received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, liquid equivalent. The current Dx levels for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast are consistent with multiple indicators. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded south across the north-central Florida Peninsula where 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 5 inches. Increasing 60 to 90-day precipitation deficits supported a 1-category degradation to the Pee Dee region of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Severe drought (D2) was added to eastern North Carolina this week as well, consistent with the NDMC short-term drought blend.

South: More than 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) supported improvements for portions of eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The small areas of severe drought (D2) were discontinued in northeastern Mississippi due to: 28-day average streamflows near the 20th percentile, soil moisture recovery, and a consensus of SPIs in D1 at worst. In addition, there is no support for maintaining D2 in the NDMC short- and long-term blends. Precipitation during the first two weeks of January resulted in a slight reduction in extreme drought (D3) across south-central Tennessee. For central Texas which received generous precipitation for this time of year, low 28-day streamflows (below the 20th percentile in D1 and 10th percentile in D2) precluded a larger area for a 1-category improvement. D2 to D3 drought was expanded across the Edwards Plateau of Texas due to 28-day average streamflows below the 10th and 5th percentile, respectively.

Midwest: Although precipitation was light (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) this past week, a 1-category improvement was made to parts of central and northeastern Indiana based on a consensus of indicators. 28-day average streamflows are generally near or above the 20th percentile throughout central to northern Indiana. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the Midwest as early to mid-January is typically a drier time of year. Based on the NOAA’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center on January 14, a large swath of snow (water equivalent near or or than 1 inch) extends from northern Missouri eastward to the Ohio Valley. Much of the Dx areas designated for the Midwest are related to a signal of abnormal dryness (D0) or drought (D1+) at 120 days or 6 months.

High Plains: The Central High Plains continued to have worsening drought conditions and moderate drought (D1) was expanded across portions of southwestern Nebraska using 60-day SPI, soil moisture below the 10th percentile, and the NDMC short-term blend. Although light precipitation (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) fell across parts of south-central to southeastern Kansas, this precipitation was too low to justify any improvements. Elsewhere, across the Central to Northern Great Plains, no changes were made as early to mid-January is a dry time of year. D1 was expanded across southwestern Colorado due to low snow water equivalent and 60-day SPI.

West: Severe drought (D2) was expanded to include all of southern California due to the very dry start to the water year to date (WYTD) from October 1, 2024 to January 13, 2025. The D2 coverage coincides with where WYTD precipitation has averaged less than 5 percent of normal. A number of locations, including San Diego, are having their driest start to the water year. The D2 covers Los Angeles and Ventura counties which are being affected by periodic Santa Ana winds drying out vegetation and large wildfires. Following the two wet winters, the large reservoirs throughout California are at or above-normal. Based on 90-day SPI, declining soil moisture, and low snow water equivalent, a 1-category degradation was warranted for parts of Arizona and southwestern Utah. A mix of improvements and degradations were made to Idaho and the depiction is generally consistent with the 2024-2025 WYTD precipitation and snowpack. Eastern Washington and much of Oregon are drought-free, but low snowpack supports moderate drought (D1) along the northern Cascades of Washington. A 1-category improvement was justified for a portion of central Montana, based on 90-day SPEI along with snow water equivalent (SWE) above the 75th percentile. As of January 14, SWE was above-normal (period of record: 1991-2020) across the southern Cascades along with eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. SWE varies for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, those numbers are beginning to decrease after a drier-than-normal start to January. SWE remained well below-normal across the Four Corners Region.

Caribbean: Puerto Rico remained drought-free but abnormal dryness (D0) may be warranted for northwestern areas in subsequent weeks.

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Pacific: A wetter pattern this past week led to a decrease in abnormal dryness (D0) for the Seward Peninsula. However, along the Yukon Delta coast, most if not all precipitation fell as rain. Given the ongoing snow drought, D0 is maintained for that part of Alaska.

Increased rainfall during the second week of January resulted in improvements for the windward sides of Kauai, Maui, Oahu, and the Big Island. Conversely, NDVI data supported slight expansion of the severe drought (D2) for parts of the northwestern and southern tip of the Big Island.

Looking Ahead: Another Arctic air outbreak is forecast for the central and eastern U.S. during mid-January as surface high pressure shifts south from Canada. By January 20, subzero minimum temperatures are expected as far south as the Central Great Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. During January 16-20, little to no precipitation is forecast from the West Coast to the Mississippi Valley with light to moderate precipitation amounts (0.5 to 1 inch) limited to the Southeast.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 21-25, 2025) favors below-normal temperatures to persist for much of the contiguous U.S. with the largest below-normal temperature probabilities (exceeding 80 percent) extending from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for the northern Great Plains, Gulf Coast, and portions of the Southeast. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the West, Central Great Plains, Midwest, and New England.

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