March 4, 2025 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Neither dryness nor drought exists across the U.S. Virgin Islands, despite near- or slightly below-normal rainfall in recent weeks.  Following last year’s wetness, vegetation remains relatively robust, while depth to groundwater – as shown by a network of U.S. Geological Survey wells – has only recently begun to increase.  February rainfall across the territory, as reported by cooperative and volunteer (CoCoRaHS) observers, generally ranged from 2 to 3 inches on St. Thomas and St. John, and 2 to 4 inches on St. Croix.  Standardized Precipitation Index values are trending in the direction of abnormal dryness, but have not yet reached that threshold.

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In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, there were subtle changes to the previous depiction. In the Federated States of Micronesia, abnormal dryness (D0-S) on Woleai was eradicated by more than 6 inches of rain during the 7-day drought-monitoring period, while moderate drought (D1-S) persisted across Yap and Pingelap. A recent report from Woleai indicated that water tanks are full and vegetation is healthy. Meanwhile, an unconfirmed report from Yap indicated there have been some spot fires. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the depiction for Wotje was changed from abnormal dryness (D0-S) to moderate drought (D1-S), due to nearly continuous dryness during the first 2 months of 2025, aside from 2 weeks in February. D1-S was retained for Kwajalein, RMI, where January-February rainfall totaled 3.32 inches. The depiction for Utirik, RMI, was set at D1-S, following the receipt of data from an automated rain gauge. Similarly, automated data from Mili, RMI, showed a February rainfall total of 16.60 inches. In the Marianas, several days of soaking rainfall on Guam and Rota – totaling 3.93 inches during the drought-monitoring period at Guam International Airport and more than 4 inches in several locations – led to improvement from moderate drought (D1-S) to abnormal dryness (D0-S). However, rain remained mostly south of Saipan, where severe drought (D2-S) persisted. Neither dryness nor drought was observed across American Samoa and the Republic of Palau.

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