August 12, 2025 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Another week of hot, generally dry weather in the U.S. Virgin Islands led to no changes in the depiction of abnormal dryness (D0-S on St. John) and moderate drought (D1-S on St. Thomas and St. Croix). Recent rainfall has been slightly heavier on St. John, with an observation site at Windswept Beach receiving 2.20 inches during the first 11 days of August. Windswept Beach’s 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) supports St. John’s D0 designation. Despite St. John’s rain, depth to water at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Susannaberg DPW 3 well increased by August 11 to more than 13.2 feet, which is the greatest value since October 30, 2023, when the territory was emerging from a significant drought. Meanwhile, 1- and 3-month SPI values for various locations on St. Thomas and St. Croix were supportive of D1-S, with increasing depths to groundwater and variable stress on vegetation providing additional evidence of moderate drought.

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In recent weeks, frequent and occasionally heavy showers across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands have eased or eliminated drought concerns, except in portions of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). By August 12, moderate drought (D1-S) in the RMI was limited to Utirik and Wotje, while abnormal dryness (D0-S) was confined to Kwajalein. Elsewhere in the RMI, Majuro’s reservoirs are nearly full, with storage increasing to more than 33.9 million gallons (94% of capacity) by August 12. On that date, neither dryness nor drought was being reported in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Mariana Islands, the Republic of Palau, and American Samoa. In the FSM, Yap has recently been one of the drier locations (less than an inch of rain falling in each of the last 3 weeks), although recent first-hand reports indicated that water supplies remain adequate.

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