August 19, 2025 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced significant impacts from Hurricane Erin, which passed north of the region as a major hurricane this week.

On St. John, the rainfall recorded at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) was 5.44 inches. Additionally, VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach) reported 4.65 inches of rain, improving the abnormal dry condition. As of August 19, 2025, the depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) was 11.95 feet below the land surface. This marks a significant decrease from last week’s measurement of 13.30 feet. The 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1) at Windswept Beach has also shown a substantial increase from 0.09 last week to 1.6 this week. In addition, the 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month SPI values are positive. Consequently, St. John has improved from an abnormally dry condition to being free of drought this week.

On St. Thomas, heavy rainfall occurred, with reports indicating up to 7 inches in some areas, primarily from outer bands of Hurricane Erin on August 16–17. The rainfall totals varied, measuring 6.30 inches at VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West, 4.2 WNW) and 5.05 inches at VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N). Additionally, VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 4.68 inches this week. For King Airport, St. Thomas, the SPI-1 value is 0.5 (it was -1.13 last week). On August 19, 2025, the depth of the water level in the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas was reported to be 5.98 feet below the land surface. This measurement is significantly lower than the level recorded last week, which was 9.36 feet. Due to the recent heavy rainfalls, St. Thomas is now free of drought.

On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 0.63 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W) to 1.62 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). Intermediate values included 1.31 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 0.74 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 0.65 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE), and 0.66 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE). The SPI-1 value for East Hill, St. Croix, is currently -0.86, compared to -1.38 and -1.21 in the previous two weeks. According to the USGS, groundwater levels at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix) reported 17.52 inches below the surface as compared to 17.43 inches last week. Thus, St. Croix improved to an abnormally dry condition this week.

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This week, most areas of the Marshall Islands experienced drought-free conditions. However, Kwajalein recorded only 0.98 inches of rain, remaining in short-term abnormally dry conditions. In addition, Wotje reported only 0.28 (with four days unaccounted for) to stay in short-term moderate drought. In contrast, some of the islands reported heavy rain this week. For example, Ailinglapalap and Majuro observed 3.91 and 2.45 inches of rain. Jaluit reported only 0.24 with four days missing, but it remained drought-free due to wet conditions in the previous weeks. There was no data available for Mili and Utirik so that no assessment could be made of those locations.

Normal weather conditions have been observed across the Federated States of Micronesia following recent heavy rains. The islands of Kosrae, Lukunor, and Pohnpei received rainfall amounts of 3.81 inches, 2.64 inches, and 4.46 inches, respectively. This week, Chuuk Lagoon, Kapingamarangi, and Nukuoro recorded rainfall of 1.64 inches, 0.74 inches, and 1.34 inches (with one day of data missing), respectively. Pingelap reported only 0.93 inches of rain, with three days of data unaccounted for, but it has remained drought-free due to recent rains in the past few weeks. Additionally, Woleai received 2.73 inches of rain, while Yap received 2.11 inches (with two days of data missing), allowing both islands to remain drought-free. There was no data available for Fananu and Ulithi, preventing any assessment from being made for those locations.

Normal conditions were observed across American Samoa, with Pago Pago reporting 0.68 inches of rain. Additionally, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge recorded 0.53 and 0.54 inches of rain this week, respectively. As a result, American Samoa remains free of drought.

Normal weather conditions were observed in Palau. The Weather Service Office in Palau Airai recorded 1.86 inches of rain, while Koror reported 1.9 inches of rain this week, ensuring the island remains free from drought.

This week, normal weather conditions prevailed across the Mariana Islands. According to the weekly rainfall report, Rota received 2.36 inches of rain, while Guam recorded 2.8 inches. As a result, both islands are currently drought-free. Additionally, Tinian and Saipan received 0.75 inches and 0.7 inches of rain, respectively. Due to the wet conditions in June and July, both islands have also managed to remain free of drought.



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