February 24, 2026 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Precipitation varied across the U.S. Virgin Islands this week. Although amounts were low, February is historically one of the driest months of the year for the territory. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.10 inches of rain, bringing the February month-to-date total to 3.30 inches as of February 23, well above the monthly normal. Despite the low weekly total, St. John remains free of drought and abnormal dryness. Groundwater levels at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well were 12.32 ft below land surface on February 24. Analysis shows a steady decline since October 19, when the level was 7.56 ft, though there has been a slight recovery earlier this month when compared to the 12.97 ft reported on February 2. Over the past year, the water level has dropped approximately 4.33 ft (from 7.99 ft on February 24, 2025). The 1-month SPI indicated wet conditions on the island, while 9- and 12-month SPI values showing wetness. Conversely, the 3- and 6-month depicts a slight dry signal. No measurable precipitation was reported on St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen Airport) this week, but the island remains free of drought and abnormal dryness due to other indicators, including vegetation health index and SPI values. St. Croix The depth to water at the Adventure 28 Well was 19.84 ft below land surface on February 24. Groundwater analysis shows a steady decrease of 5.93 ft since May 27, 2025 (when the level was 13.91 ft), and a drop of 3.04 ft compared to this time last year (16.80 ft on February 24, 2025). The 1-, 3-, and 6-month SPI values confirm wet conditions on the island, while longer timescales show drier signals. On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a rainfall total of 0.05 inches, with a February month-to-date total of 2.94 inches as of February 23. This total is well above the 1.90 inch normal for the month. The depth to water at the Grade School 3 well was 6.81 feet below land surface on February 24. This is down 4.76 ft from the 365-day maximum of 2.05 ft recorded on October 19, 2025; however, it is only 0.75 ft lower than the water level from one year ago (6.06 ft on February 24, 2025). SPI values were mixed, showing wet conditions at the 1-month timescale but slightly dry conditions at the 3-month timescale (other timescales were unavailable). Thanks to the monthly precipitation totals, 1-month SPI, and VHI data, short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) was removed from St. Thomas this week.

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Dry conditions persisted over American Samoa this week. Pago Pago reported a weekly rainfall total of 1.53 inches, while Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge reported 3.27 and 1.17 inches, respectively. At Pago Pago, this is the third consecutive week where rainfall totals fell below the two-inch minimum threshold needed to meet water needs. Furthermore, the month-to-date rainfall total of 4.24 inches (as of February 24) is well below normal precipitation amounts for this period (11.89 inches). For these reasons, Pago Pago was degraded to short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) this week.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. The Koror COOP site reported a weekly rainfall total of 2.61 inches and a month-to-date total of 9.10 inches as of February 24.

Conditions were wetter than normal over most of the Mariana Islands this week. Saipan, Rota, and Tinian reported weekly rainfall totals of 4.01, 3.29, and 1.91 inches, respectively—well above the islands’ one-inch minimum threshold to meet water needs. Guam received 0.74 inches. Although this was below the weekly threshold, month-to-date rainfall totals are approximately 190% above normal on Guam. The Marianas remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.

Conditions were mixed across the Federated States of Micronesia this week. Kosrae, Chuuk, and Pohnpei reported weekly rainfall amounts of 8.70, 2.81, and 2.60 inches, respectively, and remained free of drought and abnormal dryness. Nukuoro reported a weekly rainfall total of 1.44 inches. Although this is below the two-inch minimum threshold needed for water needs, Nukuoro remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previously wet conditions. Short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) was removed from Kapingamarangi after receiving 3.59 inches this week and due to wetness from previous weeks. On Yap, short-term abnormal dryness persisted, with 1.97 inches of rainfall reported this week. Dry conditions also persist on Lukunoch, which reported a weekly rainfall total of 1.72 inches. Due to multiple weeks of precipitation falling below the weekly minimum threshold, short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) was added to Lukunoch this week. Data for Pingelap, Woleai, Fananu and Ulithi were insufficient to make any assessments this week.

Precipitation amounts varied across the Republic of the Marshall Islands this week. Ailinglapalap (with two days missing) reported 5.07 inches and remains free of drought and abnormal dryness. Several locations, including Kwajalein (1.47 inches), Mili (1.60 inches), Majuro (1.01 inches with one day missing), and Jaluit (0.82 inches with one day missing), reported rainfall totals below the two-inch minimum threshold needed to meet water needs; however, these locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previously wet conditions. Dry conditions persisted over Wotje and Utirik, which reported weekly rainfall totals of 0.67 inches and 0.06 inches, respectively. Short-term severe drought (D2-S) continues over Wotje and Utirik due to several consecutive weeks and months remaining below the minimum two-inch threshold for water needs.

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