May 26, 2026 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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Dry conditions persisted across the U.S. Virgin Islands this week, with all locations remaining in short-term abnormal dryness. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.47 inches of rain, bringing the May month-to-date total to 1.54 inches as of May 25, which remains below the monthly normal. Groundwater levels at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well were 14.39 feet below the land surface on May 26; analysis shows that water levels have mostly declined since October 19, 2025 (when the level was 7.56 feet), despite a slight, temporary recovery in mid-April. Over the past year, this groundwater level has dropped approximately 4.33 feet from the 8.96 feet reported on May 26, 2025. This localized dryness is backed up by the 1-month SPI, which indicates dry conditions on the island, though longer 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month SPI timescales still show a slight residual wet signal.

Meanwhile, a total of 0.38 inches of rain was reported on St. Croix at Henry Rohlsen Airport this week, leaving the month-to-date total at 1.06 inches as of May 25. The depth to water at the Adventure 28 Well was 21.76 feet below the land surface on May 26, reflecting a steady and severe decrease over the past year. This is a drop of 7.83 feet compared to this time last year, when the groundwater level sat at 13.93 feet on May 26, 2025. Reflecting this prolonged deficit, the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month SPI values all confirm prevailing dry conditions on St. Croix, with only the 9-month SPI maintaining a wet signal.

On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a weekly rainfall total of 0.23 inches, bringing its May month-to-date total to 2.52 inches as of May 25. The depth to water at the Grade School 3 well was measured at 9.16 feet below the land surface on May 26. Groundwater levels here have been on a steady decline since April 20, 2026 (when the level was 4.13 feet), dropping 5.03 feet in just over a month; furthermore, this level is down 7.12 feet from the 365-day maximum of 2.04 feet recorded on October 19, 2025. SPI values confirm these emerging deficits, showing dry conditions at the 1-, 3-, and 6-month timescales, while longer-term SPI timescales for the island were unavailable.

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Wet conditions dominated American Samoa this week, with Pago Pago reporting a weekly rainfall total of 6.33 inches, pushing the May month-to-date total past 20 inches as of May 26. Additionally, Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge reported substantial weekly rainfall totals of 7.23 and 6.33 inches, respectively. Consequently, Pago Pago remains completely free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness as wet conditions persisted. The Koror COOP site reported a weekly rainfall total of 5.18 inches, bringing its month-to-date total to 16.63 inches as of May 26.

Conditions were wetter than normal over most of the Mariana Islands this week. Rota and Guam reported weekly rainfall totals of 2.04 and 1.44 inches, respectively—well above the islands’ one-inch minimum weekly threshold to meet water needs. Saipan received 0.85 inches, and though this fell slightly below the weekly threshold, Saipan and the rest of the Marianas remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Conditions were wet across most of the Federated States of Micronesia. Nukuoro, Pohnpei, Kosrae, Lukunoch, Chuuk, Kapingamarangi, and Woleai reported weekly rainfall totals of 9.14, 9.02, 8.28, 4.82, 3.74, 3.36, and 2.91 inches, respectively, keeping all of these locations free of drought and abnormal dryness. Yap reported a weekly rainfall total of 1.59 inches; although this is below the two-inch minimum weekly threshold, Yap remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previously wet conditions. Meanwhile, data for Pingelap, Fananu, and Ulithi were insufficient to make an assessment this week.

Wet conditions prevailed across the Republic of the Marshall Islands, where every monitored island surpassed the two-inch minimum weekly threshold necessary to meet water needs. Weekly rainfall totals for Jaluit (4.23 inches), Utirik (3.31 inches), Wotje (3.07 inches), Majuro (2.97 inches), Mili (2.21 inches), Kwajalein (2.07 inches), and Ailinglapalap (2.01 inches) successfully kept all locations free of drought and abnormal dryness.

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