July 21, 2026 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

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During the drought-monitoring period ending July 21, hot, breezy, mostly dry weather persisted across the U.S. Virgin Islands. At times, Saharan dust led to hazy conditions and reductions in visibility. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values broadly indicated that short-term extreme drought (D3-S) is present throughout the territory. On St. John, Windswept Beach reported near-record low rainfall of 0.23 inch in June, followed by 0.22 inch during the first 20 days of July. Windswept Beach’s driest July on record occurred in 2015, with 0.69 inch. Drought-related impacts in the U.S. Virgin Islands include significant vegetation stress, an increased wildfire threat, diminishing surface water reserves, and increases in depth to groundwater. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, depth to water at the agency’s well on St. John topped 17 feet on July 21 for the first time since early-October 2023. As recently as late-October 2025, depth to water at the USGS well on St. John had been less than 8 feet.

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Generally active weather continued across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, with neither dryness nor drought across the region. Some of the most significant rain accompanied monsoon surges across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), with totals during the drought-monitoring period ranging from 4 to 10 inches in portions of Chuuk State. Elsewhere in the FSM, Yap’s month-to-date rainfall approached 17 inches. Ample rain also continued to fall across the Republic of Palau, while recovery efforts from Super Typhoon Bavi’s recent strike continued across the Marianas. Farther east, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) experienced a modest drying trend, although no drought concerns were yet noted. In fact, reservoir storage on Majuro topped 41 million gallons for several days in mid-July, up from 37.7 million gallons at the beginning of the month. Reservoir capacity on Majuro is 47.4 million gallons. Finally, somewhat drier weather also prevailed across American Samoa, although like the RMI, drought-related concerns have not yet arisen. Additionally, American Samoa has recently experienced several very wet months, with rainfall at Pago Pago International Airport reaching 27.92 inches in January and 21.55 inches in May.

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