September 15, 2026 National Drought Summary

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Weather Summary: Last week, there were several areas that had significant rainfall amounts. One area was over Iowa, eastern Nebraska and Kansas, and northwest Missouri, where more than 4 inches fell in central Iowa and southeastern Kansas. Another area was centered over Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania, where conditions were already wet. Much of Florida and the Gulf Coast received 2 to 4 inches of precipitation in the past week. Most of the southwest U.S. received little rain, with exceptions of scattered monsoonal precipitation along the New Mexico-Arizona border. Most of Texas and Oklahoma continued to be dry, as was the majority of the western Great Plains.

Temperatures in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi valley continued to be very warm, in some locations over 10F above normal. Most of the rest of the continental U.S. was also above normal. The only areas with below normal temperatures for the past week were in northern New England as well as most of the northwest states.

Northeast: Northern New Jersey to Cape Cod along the coast of southern New England had a band of significant rain in the past week. Unfortunately, this rain was not where it was most needed. Much of Maine saw deteriorating drought conditions with continued dryness. An area of extreme drought was introduced along the Maine coastline, with low streamflows and well levels observed. Another area with rain falling over locations that are not abnormally dry was in West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.

Southeast: Central Virginia had moderate rainfall this past week, leading to some drought improvement. Most of the Carolinas into Georgia were warm and dry, however, resulting the regional degradation of drought conditions. Florida was generally wet and had drought improvement in small areas in the north, center, and south parts of the state. Meanwhile, Alabama continued to experience above normal temperatures and limited rainfall in the central to north, leading to large areas with drought degradation. There remain some areas of extreme drought in northern North Carolina, coastal South and North Carolina, and small areas in Florida.

South: Extremely above normal temperatures continued in this region over the past week. Nearly all locations had drought deterioration, with the exceptions of northern Arkansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and coastal Mississippi. Much of Texas and into the Ark-La-Tex area experienced flash drought conditions. In addition to the heat, these areas received little rainfall in the week. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions are noted in far south Texas, most of northern Texas into western and southern Oklahoma, northwestern and northeastern Arkansas, and along the Arkansas-Mississippi border.

Midwest: Significant rainfall was observed over western Kentucky as well as over central-to-north Missouri, leading in removal of abnormally dry conditions. Heavy rain also fell in northwestern Iowa, northern Minnesota, and a band across central Wisconsin, with drought improvement as a result in these locations. Meanwhile, a mostly rain-free week in northern Illinois and Indiana caused introduction of an abnormally dry area. Extreme drought conditions can be found in southern Missouri, northern Wisconsin, and along the borders of Minnesota with both Wisconsin and North Dakota.

High Plains: Eastern Kansas had above normal precipitation over the past week; this led to improvement in drought conditions in this area. Eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota also had decent rainfall and resulting improvement to drought. Other areas of South Dakota that missed out on the rain had drought degradation. Colorado had drought degradations in the center part of the state, with drought improvements in both the southwest and southeast parts. Extreme drought continues over much of Colorado and Wyoming, western Nebraska and the Dakotas, and in eastern North Dakota. Exceptional drought is observed over much of central Colorado as well as two localized areas in far western Nebraska.

West: An area from southwestern Oregon to central Washington into northern Idaho and Montana received some welcome rainfall during the week. The rain resulted in regional improvements in drought conditions. One location that just missed out was in northwest Washington on the Canadian border, resulting in a drought degradation, where continued low streamflows were observed. There were also areas on the California-Nevada border and central Arizona with drought degradation that also received little-to-no rainfall. Extreme drought is shown over much of central Oregon, central Utah, southern Idaho down into northern Nevada, and small areas in northern Washington and southern Arizona. Exceptional drought continues in southern Idaho, northern Nevada, and northeastern Oregon.

Caribbean: In Puerto Rico, some locations did experience heavy rain over the past week, which improved drought conditions. Additional rainfall will be needed to ameliorate extreme drought conditions in the northeast as well as the central-to-southern coast.

St. Croix experienced highly variable and light rainfall this week. The NWS/NOAA station at East Hill recorded 0.13 inches. The CoCoRaHS network recorded 0.48 inch at Christiansted 1.6 E (VI-SC-10), 0.07 inch at Frederiksted 1.7 ESE (VI-SC-20) and Christiansted 6.5 W (VI-SC-23), 0.18 inch at Christiansted 1.7 SW (VI-SC-30), 0.70 inches at Frederiksted 1.9 NE (VI-SC-34) and 0.12 inch at Frederiksted 1.3 ENE (VI-SC-35). Thus, reported rainfall ranged from 0.07 to 0.80 inches, with the largest amount occurring in the Christiansted area. The groundwater conditions remained very poor. At Adventure 28 Well, the water level on September 15 was 25.85 feet, compared with 18.62 feet on September 15, 2025, indicating the water level was about 7.2 feet lower than a year earlier. These conditions indicate continued short-term extreme drought (D3-S).

This week, St. John experienced sparce rainfall although available observations are limited. The Rafe Boulon (VI-SJ-3) station at Windswept Beach recorded 0.3 inches, while the CoCoRaHS station VI-SJ-5 at Cruz Bay 1.6 E recorded 0.38 inches and station VI-SJ-10 at Cruz Bay 3.1 NNW recorded 0.5 inches. None of the stations measured over half-an-inch of rainfall. At Susannaberg DPW 3 well, the water level on September 15 was measured at 18.73 feet below the land surface, compared to12.68 feet on September 15, 2025. This 6.10-foot difference indicates the groundwater level is substantially deeper now than it was a year ago. Observations showed that the depth continued to increase from the previous week, and St. John remains in short-term extreme drought (D3-S) conditions.

St. Thomas observed significant variability in rainfall this week. While Cyril E. King Airport recorded no rainfall, CoCoRaHS station VI-ST-5 at Charlotte Amalie West 4.2 WNW measured 1.01 inches and station VI-ST-15 at Charlotte Amalie West 1.3 N recorded 0.43 inches. This shows a rainfall range of 0.00 to 1.01 inches. On September 15, groundwater levels were at 8.41 feet, up from 9.76 feet the previous week and almost equal to 8.22 feet this time last year on September 15, 2025. Despite this week's improvement in groundwater depth, 3- to 12-month precipitation indicators show large precipitation deficits remain and St. Thomas continues to experience short-term extreme drought (D3-S) conditions.

Pacific: In Alaska, areas of abnormally dry conditions were also removed based on recent rains in the southeastern part of the mainland.