Moderate to heavy rain fell on almost all areas of dryness and drought along the Eastern Seaboard, improving conditions across large swaths of the region. Numerous locations experienced inundating rains and flooding, but drought conditions in some areas have been securely entrenched, limiting the amount of improvement introduced due to continuing impacts such as reduced water supplies, low groundwater, and similar hydrologic concerns.
Heavy to excessive rains also fell on some areas of dryness and drought farther west, from the central and northeastern Great Plains eastward through much of the Great Lakes Region and Lower Ohio Valley, prompting a few swaths of improvement there. But while heavy rains broadly affected the Eastern Seaboard and the Midwest, there were a few regions that missed the heavier amounts, leaving conditions essentially unchanged or even allowing for some deterioration. Temperatures averaging 6 to locally 12 deg F above normal in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Plains, along with unusually low relative humidity across much of the Dakotas and Nebraska, accelerated surface moisture loss.
To the south, heavy rain was not as widespread across the Lower Mississippi Valley, the southern half of the Great Plains, and most of the High Plains. Still, moderate rains were not uncommon here, and there were isolated heavy amounts topping 2 inches. Thus, a variable pattern featuring areas of both deterioration and improvement was observed, with many locations essentially unchanged. Precipitation was markedly deficient from southern Kansas southward through much of Texas, resulting in broad areas of deterioration. Most of these areas were also warmer than normal, although humidity was not lacking. Much of the Texas Panhandle averaged 6 to 9 deg F above normal for the week. Other parts of this region were not as extreme, but most sites still averaged somewhat warmer than normal
From the Rockies westward, precipitation was sparse. Moderate amounts, with isolated totals over 2 inches, fell in association with the Southwest monsoon across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Over the remainder of the West, scattered areas recorded several tenths of an inch to slightly over an inch across the Rockies and far Pacific Northwest, but most places recorded light precipitation at best. Very little rain fell across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, the interior Pacific Northwest, and California, although this is a dry time of year for many of those areas. Temperatures were above normal outside the Pacific Northwest
Dryness and heat intensified through most of Puerto Rico, with some areas recording one of the driest Julys on record. Hawaii and Alaska saw some new areas of abnormal dryness develop, along with moderate drought in extreme southeast Alaska
Severely dry conditions continued to affect Puerto Rico, with only the northwestern parts of the Commonwealth receiving enough rainfall to ease conditions slightly in some areas. The dryness has taken its toll on much of the Commonwealth, with any rainfall providing localized, temporary relief at best outside northwestern sections. Planned water service interruptions may be needed soon to try and maintain enough water for necessary activities. San Juan reported its driest July since records began in 1899 (0.54 inch, 9 percent of normal) and its driest June-July period (2.06 inches, 20 percent of normal). Meanwhile, Jajome Alto reported 3.15 inches (normal is 12.37 inches) and Juncos measured 2.20 inches (normal 12.28 inches). Some agricultural water rationing has been necessary in southern irrigation districts, and unofficial reports indicate a 69 percent decline in coffee production due to the drought, along with reduced yields of peppers and fruits. Two major reservoirs have had to make operational adjustments due to low water stores, while 5 others may need to undertake similar adjustments in the near future. Considering all these factors, some improvements were introduced in northwestern reaches of the Island this week, but other locations were either unchanged or deteriorated. Extreme drought (D3) was introduced along the southern tier of central and western Puerto Rico, where impacts seem to have ramped up the most quickly. In addition, D2 (severe drought) was expanded into lower central Puerto Rico, and also from the central Commonwealth northeastward to connect to another swath of D2 already sitting over part of northeastern Puerto Rico.
Extreme drought persists for all the U.S. Virgin Islands this week. CoCoRaHS stations across St. Croix Island recorded anywhere from 0 to 0.09” this week. Areas of St. John Island recorded between 0.06 and 0.65” of rain this week. The Windswept Beach station recorded 0.51” of rain this week. St. Thomas Island had received 0.55” of rain this week from CoCoRaHS stations. The Adventure 28 Well recorded water depth of 24.6 ft. as of this week. This is 0.12 ft. lower compared to last week and 7.57 ft. lower compared to last year. The Susannaberg DPW 3 Well recorded a water depth of 17.43 ft. as of this week. This is 0.25 ft. lower compared to last week and 4.57 ft. lower compared to last year. The Grade School 3 Well has a water depth of 5.92 ft. as of this week. This is 0.02 ft. lower than last week and 0.42 ft. lower compared to last year. Vegetation Health Index (VHI) values for all the islands were considerably lower compared to last year. While St. John and St. Croix islands have VHI values ranging from 12-24 and 12-48, respectively, St. Thomas Island had VHI values range from 36-48.
Conditions varied significantly across the High Plains Region last week. Heavy rains of 2 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts fell on northeastern South Dakota, a large part of northern and eastern Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas. Moderate to heavy amounts were observed elsewhere across the eastern and central sections of the Dakotas and Nebraska, southern and north-central and east-central Kansas, southeastern and the higher elevations farther west in Colorado, and patches of central and northern Wyoming and the western Dakotas. In the some of the drier parts of the region across North Dakota, central and western South Dakota, and western Nebraska, unusually hot weather accompanied the relatively low rainfall amounts. For the last 30 days, these locations generally averaged 4 to 8 deg F above normal, with a few spots in the western Dakotas and adjacent parts of Wyoming and Nebraska reporting 30-day average temperatures 8 to 10 deg F above normal. This included a few spells of extreme heat with high temperatures over 100 deg F. At the same time, relative humidity has been unusually low. Many areas across eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and adjacent Nebraska reported 4-week relative humidity averaging among the driest 10 percent of historic observations for the time period, and a few isolated spots were as dry as the lower 2 percent of historical observations. Less remarkable but still consistently below-normal relative humidity has prevailed over most of the region from the central Dakotas and Nebraska westward, along with most of Colorado. The dichotomy of conditions between eastern and western reaches of the Region is reflected in the changes introduced in the Drought Monitor this week. Most of North Dakota, the western half of South Dakota, and parts of northeastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado saw conditions deteriorate, as did southern Kansas adjacent to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, eastern South Dakota, central through eastern Nebraska, southeastern Colorado, and western Wyoming notched sizeable areas of improvement. A new patch the worst drought classification (D4) was brought into northwestern Nebraska and another introduced in part of the Denver Metro Area. Existing areas of D4 remained intact in the Nebraska Panhandle, east-central Colorado, south-central and interior western Colorado. A majority of Wyoming and Colorado remain entrenched in D3, as do western reaches of Nebraska and South Dakota along with a few scattered locales farther south and east. In contrast, dryness has been entirely removed from sizeable parts of southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and the east-central Dakotas.
Moderate to heavy rains fell on much of the Region, with amounts of at least 0.5 inch falling on most locations. Swaths of heavy to excessive rainfall (over 2 inches) were noted over sizeable areas in northwestern and southern Minnesota, southern and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, much of northern Illinois, central Indiana, parts of western Ohio, and isolated locations across southern Kentucky, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and central through northern Missouri. For the most part, maximum precipitation totals of about 5 inches were observed in isolated spots across the aforementioned areas, but excessive amounts of 5 o 7 inches were more widespread in a band stretching from Kandiyohi and Chippewa Counties in interior southern Minnesota southeastward through portions of Renville, McLeod, Sibley, and Le Sueur Counties. All dryness and drought was removed from this region, and relatively broad areas of improvement were also introduced in northwestern Minnesota, southeastern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, parts of central and northwestern Indiana, and southeastern Kentucky. In sharp contrast, heavier rains missed some areas in the Region, and in areas where dry weather had prevailed over the previous few weeks, dryness and drought intensified. This included east-central and west-central Michigan, northern Wisconsin, part of central and northwestern Iowa, and the northern and southern tiers of Missouri. These locations recorded 10 to 50 percent of normal rain for the past 30 days while 90-day totals near or under half of normal were observed through northern Wisconsin, parts of central and northern Minnesota, and a few patches farther south across Lower Michigan, Missouri, Illinois, and some of northern Indiana and Ohio. 90-day deficits of 4 to locally 8 inches encompass much of northern Wisconsin and adjacent Michigan, and a few other areas scattered across the Region.
Moderate to heavy rainfall doused most of the areas previously affected by dryness and drought, resulting in large swaths of improvement. Amounts exceeding one-half inch were almost ubiquitous from western Maine southward through Maryland, with totals exceeding 2 inches reported across most of this stretch. Southern New England and adjacent New York reported the most widespread heavy amounts. Most of this region received at least 3 inches of rain, with 5 to 8 inches inundating portions of central Massachusetts, north-central Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and adjacent areas. Not surprisingly, improvements were introduced throughout this corridor, especially across and near southern New England. Moderate drought, however, was maintained across central Massachusetts despite inundating rainfall due to continuing groundwater deficiencies and low well levels, potentially impacting water supplies where those are the primary sources of water supplies. Similarly, though patchy improvements were introduced, abnormal dryness to severe drought remains across most of New Jersey despite large areas receiving 2 to 4 inches of rain. The state Department of Environmental Protection is keeping northern New Jersey in its Drought Warning classification due to continuing stress on water supply sources. In addition, some areas reported intense rainfall rates that dropped large amounts of water on some areas and induced some flooding, but also kept groundwater levels unfavorably low, though they have improved some. In contrast, heavy rains missed areas farther north and northwest, although patchy moderate totals were reported. With short-term moisture deficits increasing, D0 and D1 conditions in Maine were expanded northward, and new swatches of D0 were introduced in part of western Upstate New York and portions of northern Vermont. In these deteriorating locations, 30-day rainfall totals were only 25 to 50 percent of normal, and 90-day totals were 4 to locally 8 inches below normal.
Increased precipitation in northwestern Alaska removed the area of abnormal dryness that had been there last week. However, farther southeast, a few new areas of concern have been introduced. D0 was brought into a small part of central Alaska near Fairbanks due to reports of low surface moisture. This was exemplified in the behavior of the Tatlanika wildfire, which suggests that surface brush/fuels and the duff layer are unusually dry. A larger area of abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced farther south throughout Southeast Alaska, where precipitation has been deficient the past few months. After a reassessment of conditions, moderate drought was introduced in the southwestern islands in Southeast Alaska due to low water supplies that have created an emergency situation in Hydaburg, according to Alaska Emergency Operations. A burn ban has also been put in place in this region of Alaska, as a wildfire that started near Haines has continued to burn in an area that is largely a cool rainforest under typical conditions.
Low precipitation totals have persisted in leeward areas of Hawaii, where precipitation is typically fairly light this time of year. Still, with an inch or less of precipitation observed over the past 30 days, D0 conditions are unchanged in the northwestern Big Island, central Maui, and western Molokai. Farther north and west, similar rainfall amounts have been measured in leeward locations of Kauai and Oahu, with D0 (abnormal dryness) introduced in those locations.
Rain was present to end July and start August for some islands in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Ailingalapalap and Jaluit received a total of 5.23” and 8.26” of rain respectively this week. Some places had a wet end to July and a dry start to August. Majuro received 4.11” of rain to end July but only 0.99” of rain to start August. Jaluit received the least rain this week of all the islands in the RMI, only receiving 0.9” of rain to start August. Other islands such as Mili, Utirik, and Wotje received 3.82”, 2.07” and 3.59” of rain for this week.
Rain was spotty for the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) this week. Places such as Chuuk Lagoon, Kapingamarangi and Pohnpei received a total of 4.99”, 5.07” and 6.02” of rain, respectively. However, there are places that have received much less rain this week. Places such as Kosrae, Nukuoro, Ulithi and Yap received only 1.61”, 1.64”, 1.26” and 0.56” of rain this week. The island of Lukunor received the least rain this week at 0.1” of precipitation.
The Republic of Palau experienced a dry week. The Koror station only received 0.42” of rain, while the WSO in Palau only received 0.41” of rain this week. American Samoa has also experienced a drier week. The Pago Pago Airport received only 0.3” of rain this week. The Siufaga and Toa ridges received 1.07” and 1.24” of rain this week. Due to the persistent dryness encountered, American Samoa may face a one-category degradation to abnormal dryness next week, should the lack of rain continue.
The Marianas Islands experienced the passage of another typhoon in the middle of July. Additionally, the monsoon season may be in effect. Nevertheless, Guam has received 1.14” of rain this week. Rota and Tinian have received 4.32” and 1.92” of rain this week, respectively. The Saipan International Airport has received 0.37” of rain to close July, while precipitation records were missing to start August. Additionally, rainfall records were missing this week for the AMME NPS Saipan.
Moderate to heavy rain was fairly widespread across central and eastern Tennessee and the eastern half of Mississippi, although amounts exceeding 2 inches were mostly limited to north-central and southeastern Tennessee. Light rain (several tenths of an inch) with scattered higher totals were observed farther west across Arkansas and, to a lesser extent, Louisiana. Farther west, there were a few swaths of moderate to heavy rain in parts of northwestern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and central to southwestern Texas, but most of these two states reported no measurable rain to a few tenths at best. Recently, very hot weather has baked the norther portion of this region from the Red River Valley and the Texas Panhandle northward. Temperatures averaged 1-3 deg F above normal in northeastern Texas, 3 to 6 deg F above normal across most of Oklahoma, and 5 to 9 deg F above normal in the Texas Panhandle. Portions of Deep South Texas were also warmer than their typical mid-summer temperatures. The dryness and heat have accelerated deterioration across Oklahoma and northern Texas, where many locations are seeing dying grass, depleted stream-fed and farm ponds, and increased fire danger. The past 30 days brought less than half of normal rain to most locations from the Texas Panhandle and the Red River Valley northward, with the driest areas (less than one-quarter of normal) covering the central and eastern Texas Panhandle, western and northern Oklahoma, and some regions near the Red River. Subnormal humidity at the same time also aggravated the situation in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. As a result, drought degradation was widespread across most of Oklahoma and northern Texas, indicative of rapid surface moisture loss. Other areas of significant deterioration included western Texas, Deep South Texas, and western Arkansas. Abnormal dryness was also brought in to a few spots across Louisiana and Mississippi while more intensely dry conditions over portions of Arkansas and adjacent Mississippi were essentially unchanged. The past 30 days also brought less than half of normal rain to numerous locations across western and southern Texas, Arkansas, northern and eastern Louisiana, and central through southern Mississippi. Improvement was limited to portions of the wetter areas across eastern Tennessee.
Similar to areas farther north, moderate to heavy rain fell on most of the Region, especially from the central Florida Peninsula northward through most of the Florida Panhandle, south-central through east-central Georgia, and central South Carolina. Most locations there reported over 2 inches of rain. Another fairly solid swath of similar amounts extended across central and south-central Virginia, in addition to some smaller patches across the Region that included portions of the coastal Carolinas, the Piedmont and eastern slopes of the Appalachians across southern Virginia and the western Carolinas, and part of the southern Appalachians. Excessive totals of 5 to locally 10 inches of rain drenched the northwestern Florida Peninsula and adjacent locations in the eastern Panhandle, and there were scattered locations recording over 5 inches of rain within the broader areas with 2 inches or more noted above. These rains brought improvement to several swaths across the Region, most notably from the northwestern Florida Peninsula westward through much of the Panhandle, but similar to some places in the Northeast Region, the entrenched nature of the drought kept improvements more muted than might seem logical. Only a few small isolated spots saw a 2-category improvement despite inundating rains, and a majority of locations across Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, and southern through eastern Florida are unchanged from last week. Despite the wet week, rainfall over the past 4 months is 2 to locally 6 inches below normal across most of central through southwestern Virginia, northern North Carolina, the eastern tier of South Carolina and adjacent North Carolina, and many locations scattered across the Florida Peninsula.
Areas of moderate to locally heavy rain, at least partially driven by a mature monsoon circulation, were observed across much of southern and eastern New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, the higher elevations of central Arizona, and a few scattered patches stretching from southern Utah northward through southeastern Idaho, southern Montana, and eastern Montana. A few swatches received similar amounts in western Washington. Other locations recorded little or no precipitation, although this is not uncommon during summer across much of California and the Far West. Conditions across southeastern Idaho and southern Montana have been exacerbated by temperatures averaging 6 to 10 deg F above normal during the past 30 days, including a few days of intense heat. Near- or below-normal temperatures during this period were restricted to the Pacific Northwest, central and northern California, and western Nevada. Relative humidity has been seasonably low during this period. The dry and hot conditions are not too out of character for July across California, Nevada, and southern Oregon, with drought designations unchanged from last week. Farther north, the lack of winter snowpack despite ample winter precipitation is starting to take its toll, with increasing moisture shortages leading to degradations across eastern Washington, northwestern and eastern Oregon, much of the Idaho Panhandle, and parts of eastern Montana. Meanwhile, locally heavy precipitation over the past few weeks, enhanced by rain from a mature monsoonal circulation, prompted localized areas of improvement in west-central New Mexico, parts of southeastern Arizona and some higher elevations farther north in the state, and a few places scattered across Utah.
During August 5-10, 2026, a decided lack of heavy rainfall is forecast across the Contiguous States. A few areas are expecting 1.5 to locally 3.0 inches of rain, but they are not extensive and include central Missouri, a few scattered patches along the Appalachians from western North Carolina to Upstate New York, isolated spots in southwestern Wisconsin and southwestern Michigan, and portions of central and west-central Florida. Totals of 1 to 2 inches are also possible in southeastern Arizona as well as some higher elevations in the state. Amounts exceeding an inch are also forecast across a large swath of Missouri and some adjacent areas, the southern Great Lakes and adjacent Mississippi Valley, most of western Pennsylvania, several areas in the Appalachians from northern Georgia through West Virginia, east-central Pennsylvania, portions of Upstate New York and adjacent Vermont, and the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered small patches across the central and eastern Gulf Coast, southeast and central Arizona, and northern New England may also record 1 to 1.5 inches. Other areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward are expecting light to moderate rain, with only a few tenths of an inch at best in much of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, southeastern Virginia, and adjacent North Carolina. Farther west, monsoonal moisture is expected to trigger light to locally moderate rains over parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Elsewhere from the central Great Plains westward, little or no precipitation is anticipated. Most of the country can expect near to above-normal temperatures during this period, especially over the Great Plains westward, where locations outside the Pacific Northwest and immediate West Coast are expected to record temperatures 5 to 11 deg. F above normal, with the greatest departures covering southern Kansas, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, most of Colorado, and some adjacent areas. Temperatures east of the Mississippi River are expected to be closer to normal, although a few areas are expected to record somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Temperatures should average 4 to 6 deg F above normal across the Tennessee and adjacent Lower Mississippi Valley, across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Region, and northern New England.
The 6- to 10-day outlook (August 11-15, 2026) at least marginally favors above-normal precipitation from the Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. The best chances for significantly above-normal precipitation (over 50 percent) cover areas expected to be under the influence of the Southwest monsoon, from Arizona through most of Utah, eastern Nevada, and the southeastern California deserts. Odds lean toward above-normal precipitation in most of the eastern half of the country as well, excepting only the northwestern Great Lakes and adjacent Mississippi Valley, the southeastern Great Plains, the Gulf Coast and adjacent locales, and the lower Eastern Seaboard south of the Carolinas and central Georgia. Across the Contiguous States, enhanced chances for subnormal rainfall are limited to the Florida Peninsula. In Alaska, near normal precipitation is expected in central parts of the state and across most of Southeast Alaska, with subnormal amounts nominally favored in far southeastern areas that where moderate drought newly emerged this week. Above-normal precipitation is expected over most of Hawaii outside Kauai, with the best chances (over 40 percent) covering most of the Big Island. Meanwhile, warmer than typical mid-August conditions are favored across most of the Contiguous States, and throughout Alaska and Hawaii. Odds favor anomalous warmth from the Middle and South Atlantic Regions westward through the central and southern Great Plains, then from the entirety of the Rockies to the Pacific Coast. Chances for significantly above-normal temperatures are highest (near 80 percent) across the Big Island and southeastern Maui in Hawaii. The likelihood of above-normal temperatures exceeds 60 percent in a swath across central Alaska, in portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains, and the South Atlantic Region from most of Florida through eastern South Carolina.
Richard Tinker, NOAA, NWS, NCEP, CPC
Daniel Whitesel, National Drought Mitigation Center