Over the past week, scattered heavy rains fell over parts of the central Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Rain amounts were especially heavy in parts of Nebraska and Minnesota, where locally 8 or more inches of rain fell. These rains helped to alleviate drought and abnormal dryness in some areas. A few areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois that missed heavier rains saw localized degradations. Heavy monsoonal rain and thunderstorms also occurred in parts of west Texas and New Mexico, leading to some improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness there. Meanwhile, most areas west of the Continental Divide remained dry or mostly dry. This continued dry weather led to further degradation in drought and abnormal dryness, especially in the Northwest, where severe and extreme drought developed or expanded in coverage. Conditions in the Southeast and central Gulf Coast were mostly quiet this week, though a few areas in east Tennessee and southern Louisiana saw localized abnormal dryness develop given short-term precipitation deficits and declining soil moisture. Heavier rains fell across parts of Florida, leading to some reduction in drought and abnormal dryness coverage in the Florida Peninsula. Well-above-normal temperatures occurred in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions, where temperatures ranging from 4-8 degrees above normal, and locally 10 degrees hotter than normal, were common. The Northwest was also warmer than normal this week, with most areas checking in with warm anomalies of 2-6 degrees. Southeast New Mexico and west Texas finished the week 2-8 degrees cooler than normal owing to rain and clouds from the North American Monsoon, which became much more active this week.
A mix of improvements and degradations occurred across Hawaii, where vegetation and streamflows responded to recent rainfall or lack thereof.
Scattered heavier showers fell across parts of Alaska, while some locations that missed out saw fire danger increase, leading to a mix of improvements and degradations.
Short-term rainfall deficits continued to build in north-central and south-central Puerto Rico, leading to localized increases in abnormal dryness coverage.
This week, mostly dry weather occurred in southern New England, southern New York and portions of New Jersey, as well as northern Maine. Temperatures ranged from 2-8 degrees warmer than normal across much of the southern portion of the region, while near or below normal temperatures (mostly by 1-4 degrees) were more common in northern New England. A few minor expansions of abnormal dryness and moderate drought occurred in east-central New Jersey, Long Island and eastern Massachusetts. On Long Island and in eastern Massachusetts, short-term precipitation deficits started to grow amid reductions in soil moisture and streamflow, on top of groundwater shortages. However, most of the rest of the region remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.
Heavy rain, locally in excess of 4 inches, fell across parts of Florida, southwest Georgia, and Alabama, while comparatively drier weather, with local rain amounts of 2 inches or more, occurred over the rest of the Southeast. Virginia and the Carolinas saw warmer-than-normal weather, with temperatures ranging from 2-8 degrees above normal, while most of the rest of the Southeast was either near-normal or 2-4 degrees warmer than normal. Some improvement to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness occurred across the Florida Peninsula in areas of heavier rain, though areas of moderate, severe and extreme drought persisted in some locations where significant deficits in rainfall and streamflow persisted. Elsewhere across the Southeast, conditions remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.
Heavy monsoonal rains fell this week across portions of west Texas, with local amounts of 2-3 inches or more. Heavy rains of 2-3 inches or more also fell across parts of northeast Oklahoma, and southwest Tennessee. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of at least 2 inches were less common, while southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, northwest Oklahoma and portions of central Texas saw mostly dry weather this week. In west Texas, under the monsoonal rainfall, temperatures were 4-8 degrees cooler than normal in some areas. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures were mostly 2-4 degrees warmer than normal in Arkansas and northern Mississippi, while temperatures were mostly 2-6 degrees warmer than normal in Tennessee. Outside of Texas, the South region remained almost entirely free of drought or abnormal dryness. However, around a few localized areas of short-term precipitation and soil moisture deficits, a few small areas of abnormal dryness developed in southern Louisiana and eastern Tennessee. In west Texas, heavy rains from the North American Monsoon helped to partially alleviate short- and long-term precipitation deficits and improve soil moisture quantity.
Heavy rain fell this week across portions of the Midwest, including central and south-central and northern Missouri, portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, central and northern Wisconsin, the western Michigan Upper Peninsula, and portions of southern Indiana and Ohio. Warmer-than-normal temperatures covered most of the region, especially Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, southern Michigan and Kentucky, where temperatures ranging from 4-10 degrees above normal were common. Temperatures 1-4 degrees warmer than normal were more common in Iowa, Missouri and southern Wisconsin, while a small area of cooler-than-normal weather occurred in central Minnesota, where temperatures were mostly 1-4 degrees below normal. A mix of improvements and degradations to ongoing areas of drought and abnormal dryness occurred in Illinois, northwest Indiana and Minnesota. In these areas, soil moisture and precipitation deficits and surpluses continued to shift after recent heavy rain or lack thereof. Improvements to ongoing drought or abnormal dryness occurred in northern Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where heavy recent rainfall lessened precipitation deficits and improved soil moisture.
Very heavy rain fell across parts of southwest and central Nebraska, which extended into portions of northern Kansas (north of Interstate 70) and portions of west-central and eastern South Dakota. Significant flash flooding occurred from rain amounts locally exceeding 8 inches in Grand Island, Nebraska, while very heavy rain, locally in excess of 5 inches, fell in parts of eastern South Dakota, where significant tornadoes also occurred on June 28. Heavier rain amounts fell in parts of south-central and northeast Colorado as well, though most of the heavier totals were in the 1-3 inch range. Primarily dry weather occurred west of the Continental Divide in Colorado and Wyoming. Temperatures across the region were mostly near normal to 2-4 degrees above normal, though parts of the eastern Dakotas were a few degrees cooler than normal. In areas that received heavy rain, soil moisture and precipitation deficits were alleviated and widespread improvements to ongoing drought or abnormal dryness occurred, including a two-category improvement in central Nebraska where some of the week’s heaviest rains fell. Meanwhile, degradations occurred in northwest Colorado and western Wyoming, where soil moisture and streamflow deficits mounted amid growing precipitation deficits.
Heavy monsoonal rains fell this week in parts of New Mexico, excluding the far northwest. Elsewhere, this week’s weather was almost entirely dry. Combined with warmer-than-normal temperatures (mostly by 2-6 degrees) in the Northwest states, this led to widespread degradation in drought and abnormal dryness for central and northern Utah, Idaho, parts of northern and much of western Montana, and Washington. Very low streamflows and large short-term precipitation deficits contributed to widespread expansion of severe and extreme drought in western Montana and adjacent Idaho. Short-term severe drought also occurred in parts of central and north-central Washington, where deficits in precipitation and streamflow continued to grow. In much of New Mexico, excluding the far west and northwest portions, near- or below-normal temperatures were common this week along with some heavier rainfall amounts exceeding 2 inches (locally exceeding 5 inches). The improved soil moisture and lessened precipitation deficits led to widespread improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in southeast, southwest and north-central New Mexico. Exceptional drought expanded slightly along part of the Arizona-New Mexico state line where deficits in groundwater and precipitation continued to mount.
With a few local exceptions in far western Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts across the island mostly remained under 0.5 inches. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in north-central and south-central portions of the island alongside declining levels of groundwater, streamflow and soil moisture, leading to a few areas of expanding abnormal dryness. Temperatures, while variable, were mostly 0.5-1.5 degrees warmer than normal.
Generally, dry weather prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands in June. The satellite-based precipitation estimates, obtained from the GPM IMERG Early 7-day observed precipitation maps updated today, indicate that rainfall across the Virgin Islands ranged from 0.04 to 0.4 inches this week.
On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 0.34 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted, 1.9 NE) to 0.91 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W). Intermediate values included 0.52 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 0.50 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 0.39 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE), and 0.37 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted, 1.7 SW). The 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1) value for East Hill, St. Croix, is currently -0.51, compared to -0.79 and -0.21 in the previous two weeks. According to the USGS, groundwater levels at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix) have shown an increasing depth since mid-May but remain relatively shallow at 15.52 feet compared to last year's level of 23.73 feet. Thus, although it shows a trend towards abnormally dry conditions, St. Croix remained drought-free.
On St. Thomas, rainfall totals varied, measuring 0.08 inches at VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West, 4.2 WNW) and 0.25 inches at VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N). Additionally, VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 0.19 inches, while VI-ST-15 reported 0.13 inches, with two days of data unaccounted for. For King Airport, St. Thomas, the SPI-1 value is -0.57 (it was -0.66 last week). On July 1, 2025, the water level in the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas was reported to be 9.86 feet below the land surface. This measurement is higher than the level recorded at the same time the previous year, which was 5.14 feet. Additionally, there has been an increasing trend in the depth of the water during June. Due to the recent dry conditions, St. Thomas is now classified as being in an abnormally dry category.
On St. John, the rainfall recorded at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) was only 0.08 inches. Additionally, VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach) reported 0.25 inches of rain, contributing to a total of 1.36 inches for June. As of July 1, 2025, the depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) was 11.16 feet below the land surface. This marks an increase from last week’s measurement of 10.80 feet. In comparison to the same time the previous year, when the water level was 8.14 feet, this indicates a significant rise. Consequently, St. John is currently experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
Heavier precipitation amounts, locally over 3 inches, fell in parts of southeast Alaska. In parts of west-central, central and east-central Alaska, 0.5-1.5 inches of precipitation were reported this week. In some of these areas, the precipitation was sufficient to remove or shrink areas of abnormal dryness. In some areas that missed out on heavier precipitation amounts, fire danger grew and moderate drought and abnormal dryness expanded in coverage. Temperatures were primarily near normal or 1-4 degrees cooler than normal in east-central, south-central and southeast Alaska, with a few spots reporting temperatures in the 2-6 degree below normal range in parts of west-central Alaska. Temperatures were primarily 2-6 degrees above normal in northwest Alaska, while temperatures in the North Slope were mostly within a few degrees of normal.
Temperatures in Hawaii this week were generally within a couple degrees of normal. Rainfall over 1 inch fell on parts of the windward portion of the Big Island, on portions of the southwest kona (leeward) coast, and in more isolated areas of the windward portions of Maui and Kauai. In areas where precipitation deficits lessened and vegetation health improved, a few one-category improvements were made, including parts of the west and east coasts of the Big Island and small portions of the leeward sides of Lanai and Molokai. Abnormal dryness grew in coverage on Oahu, where deficits in rainfall and locally, streamflow, grew. Moderate drought coverage also expanded on the southwest coast of Kauai, where precipitation deficits grew amid worsening vegetation health.
This week, most areas of the Marshall Islands experienced drier-than-normal conditions, except for the southeastern region. Ailinglapalap and Kwajalein recorded only 1.10 and 1.15 inches of rain, respectively, worsening the drought conditions from moderate to severe. Jaluit also experienced a decline, reporting just 0.85 inches of rain, leading to extreme drought conditions. Meanwhile, Utirik and Wotje received only 1.52 and 0.08 inches of rainfall, respectively, keeping them in extreme drought status. In contrast, Majuro and Milli experienced significant rain, with reports of 3.94 and 3.1 inches, respectively, which allowed both islands to remain drought-free.
Normal weather conditions have been observed across the Federated States of Micronesia following recent heavy rains. This week, Chuuk Lagoon, Kosrae, Lukunor, and Nukuoro received rainfall amounts of 6.05, 3.18, 2.52 (with 3 days missing), and 2.67 inches, respectively. This significant precipitation has helped these islands remain drought-free. Kapingamarangi reported only 1.17 inches of rain this week. However, due to substantial rainfall in the previous weeks, the island is also drought-free. Pingelap experienced three consecutive weeks of heavy rainfall, accumulating 2.12 inches of rain this week, although one day of rainfall remains unaccounted for. This significant precipitation improved the island's conditions from severe drought to long-term moderate drought. Additionally, Woleai and Yap received 1.31 inches and 4.73 inches of rain, respectively, allowing both islands to remain drought-free. There was no data available for Fananu and Ulithi, so no assessment could be made of those locations.
Normal conditions were observed across American Samoa. Pago Pago reported no rain, with five days missing. However, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge recorded 2.77 and 0.57 inches of rain this week, respectively. Therefore, American Samoa remains drought-free.
Normal conditions prevailed across Palau. Koror reported 4.04 inches of rain this week, enabling the island to remain drought-free.
Wet conditions have impacted the Mariana Islands this week. According to the weekly rainfall report, Rota and Guam received 5.78 inches and 7.82 inches of rain, respectively. As a result, both islands have transitioned from moderate and severe drought conditions to long-term abnormally dry conditions. Additionally, Tinian and Saipan recorded 2.38 inches and 3.47 inches of rain, respectively. This rainfall has improved their status from severe and extreme drought to long-term severe drought conditions.
Looking Ahead
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a few areas of rainfall exceeding 1 inch for the period through the evening of Monday, July 7. Localized 1-inch or greater totals are possible in locations in New Mexico, northwest Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, northern Kansas and Nebraska into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Plains, western Montana, and the Florida Peninsula, perhaps extending to the Southeast’s Atlantic coastline as a weather disturbance moves through. Heavy rain amounts exceeding 3 inches are forecast in portions of the Florida Peninsula, especially along much of its Gulf coast. Mostly dry weather is expected from the Intermountain West to the Pacific Ocean and across much of south Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the southern Mid-Atlantic.
For July 8-12, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in the western Contiguous U.S., especially west of the Continental Divide. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also favored in the eastern U.S., especially from Virginia southward to Florida. Near- or below-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the southern and central Great Plains and western portions of the Midwest. Below-normal precipitation is favored from northern Arizona across Utah, Nevada, southern Idaho, much of Oregon and southwest Washington. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored in southern Arizona and southern and eastern New Mexico eastward across much of the Contiguous U.S.
In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the state, especially in the eastern half and excluding the far west reaches. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are favored across most of Alaska, especially central and eastern portions of Alaska.
In Hawaii, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored from Molokai westward. Above-normal precipitation is favored throughout Hawaii.