The Lower 48 states and Alaska only saw degradations this week. There was a strong east-to-west temperature gradient again this week, with below-normal temperatures across much of the East and above-normal temperatures across the West. Another week of localized precipitation that missed large portions of the country led to expanding precipitation deficits. Degradations were also scattered across the West, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies, including portions of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado. Although some mountain snow fell, critically low snowpack with snow-water equivalent levels below the 15th percentile continues to dominate much of the region and support ongoing drought expansion. Across the High Plains and into the western Midwest, one-class degradations followed another mostly dry week. In the Northeast, despite colder-than-normal temperatures, a continued lack of meaningful precipitation contributed to worsening conditions in parts of Pennsylvania and southern New England. Degradations were also seeing across the South, from the eastern southern Plains of Oklahoma and Texas eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the western Carolinas. Despite scattered precipitation in some locations, short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow, with drying soils and low streamflows supporting intensification. In southern Georgia and Florida, fire danger continues to rise, with parts of Florida reporting Keetch-Byram Drought Index values between 500 and 700.
In Hawaii, strong trade winds brought heavy precipitation and wind to the windward slopes of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island, where 4 to 10 inches of rain fell at lower elevations and snow at higher elevations, supporting one-class improvements in those areas.
Precipitation was generally light across the region, with many areas receiving below-normal amounts outside of localized lake-effect snow. Short-term precipitation deficits over the past 30 to 60 days are 2 to 6 inches below normal across parts of Pennsylvania, New York and New England, especially in southern and coastal areas. Temperatures averaged 5 to 15 degrees below normal, limiting potentially beneficial snowmelt in northern New York and northern New England. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in eastern Pennsylvania and central New York. In Massachusetts, moderate drought (D1) expanded westward across central portions of the state and into southeastern areas where longer-term precipitation deficits and low groundwater persist. In northeastern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and adjacent portions of south-central Massachusetts, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced to reflect continued streamflow, groundwater concerns and ongoing precipitation deficits.
Precipitation across the Southeast was generally light and uneven during the past week. Most areas received less than 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Large portions of Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and north Florida recorded below 25 percent of normal precipitation for the week. Narrow bands of heavier rainfall brought localized 1 to 2 inch totals across parts of the central Gulf Coast and portions of the eastern Carolinas. Degradations across the region were driven by short- to medium-term precipitation deficits continuing to grow. Soil moisture remains below the 10th percentile across large portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, with some areas below the 5th percentile. Streamflows across parts of Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama remain in the single digits, and reservoir levels in portions of the Carolinas continue to run below seasonal averages. Moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in parts of Georgia, the South Carolina Upstate and portions of North Carolina where there are longer-term deficits, low streamflows and very low soil moisture percentiles.
Across Florida, widespread degradations were made as rainfall was scattered and light, with most areas receiving less than 0.5 inches. Extreme drought (D3) expanded across portions of north and south Florida, while moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across the central panhandle. Soil moisture percentiles remain below the 10th percentile across much of the state and below the 5th percentile in parts of central and southern Florida. Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 600 to above 700 in several areas, showing elevated to extreme fire potential. Wildfire activity increased during the week, and multiple water management districts, including the South Florida Water Management District, have issued water shortage advisories or warnings due to declining groundwater and surface water levels.
Drought conditions across the South continued to deteriorate this week, as much of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Most areas recorded below 50 percent of normal rainfall, with many locations under 25 percent of normal. Portions of middle and northeastern Tennessee received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, but amounts were insufficient to offset ongoing 30- to 90-day precipitation deficits. Degradations occurred across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley as short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow across Louisiana, Arkansas and portions of Texas and Oklahoma, with many areas 2 to 6 inches below normal over the past few months. Soil moisture percentiles remain below normal across much of the region and are particularly low in central Louisiana, southern Arkansas and parts of western Oklahoma and South Texas. Streamflows in several basins continue to run below seasonal averages, with some gauges in low percentiles following weeks of limited recharge.
In Deep South Texas, long-term dryness continues to intensify. From August 14, 2025, through February 10, 2026, Rio Grande City ranks as the fifth warmest and third driest on record dating back to 1928, while McCook ranks as the second warmest and sixth driest since 1942 according to NWS and NOAA. A nearby Texas Mesonet site near Hebbronville recorded just 3.81 inches over the past 180 days, and another Mesonet site along the Starr and Jim Hogg County line recorded 11.5 inches, with only 0.33 inches falling during December and January combined. Persistent six-month precipitation deficits and continued warmth reinforced long-term hydrologic stress across the lower Rio Grande Valley.
It was another dry week across the Midwest, receiving little to no precipitation while temperatures remained below normal. Snow cover continues across the northern part and portions of the Great Lakes, keeping soils frozen. While most of the Midwest was unchanged this week, widespread degradations were made across portions of Illinois and Missouri where 3-to-6-month precipitation deficits grew, with low streamflows and below-normal groundwater levels. In central and southern Illinois, water table levels remain well below the 10th percentile at many monitoring sites, and streams are running near or below seasonal norms. Similar short- to mid-term precipitation deficits and declining streamflows supported expansion of dryness across parts of Missouri, including northwestern, south-central and southeastern areas, with additional intensification near the Missouri-Arkansas border where longer-term deficits continue to grow. Farther north and west, localized expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) occurred in portions of Minnesota and Iowa where recent weather systems largely missed and short-term soil moisture percentiles show drying.
The High Plains saw little to no meaningful precipitation this week, with most of the region receiving less than 25 percent of normal and many locations at or below 5 percent of normal precipitation. Any snowfall was light and offered minimal liquid-equivalent benefit. In eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, precipitation deficits continue to deepen with soil moisture percentiles declining, and recent above-normal temperatures led to drying where snow cover is limited. This led to expansion of moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into the southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle and the western Nebraska Sandhills. Similarly, growing short- to medium-term precipitation deficits, below-normal soil moisture percentiles and elevated evaporative demand led to the introduction of extreme drought (D3) to Nebraska’s Panhandle. Eastern Nebraska also saw the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) as the lack of precipitation has led to drying conditions. Across Kansas, degradations occurred primarily in the northwest, south and along the Missouri border in eastern Kansas following another dry week which, like the rest of the region, added to the growing precipitation deficits and drying soil moisture.
Precipitation across the West this week was light and uneven. Most low-elevation areas in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and western Colorado received little to no measurable liquid precipitation, with seven-day totals generally below 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Mountain snow did fall in portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, but accumulations were locally light and patchy. Snowpack and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) percentiles remain well below normal at many SNOTEL sites: much of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado show SWE values in the lowest 15th percentile, with numerous locations in the single digits for this time of year.
Temperatures were above normal across broad areas of the interior West, especially in the Great Basin, central and eastern Wyoming, and northern Colorado, where daytime highs ran 5 to 15 degrees above average at times. These warmer temperatures limited snow accumulation in some basins and contributed to surface drying where snow cover was sparse or absent.
Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated precipitation helped maintain existing conditions in parts of western Washington, Oregon and northern California. However, low SWE percentiles and expanding short- to mid-term precipitation deficits led to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and localized moderate drought (D1) in Washington. Despite seeing precipitation this week, areas of Montana still saw degradations where short- to mid-term precipitation deficits, low soil moisture percentiles and poor snowpack continue to be of concern. Across Utah, Nevada and western Colorado, persistent 2 to 4 month precipitation deficits combined with declining soil moisture and very low SWE percentiles (snow drought) led to further degradations. Many SNOTEL sites in the central Rockies and Great Basin continue to report levels below the 10th percentile for snowpack, with Colorado experiencing its worst snowpack-to-date on record, according to Denver Water and 9NEWS.
Drought conditions across Puerto Rico remained unchanged this week. Another cold front moved across the island, bringing beneficial rainfall to much of Puerto Rico. Many locations received near- to above-normal precipitation, and short-term rainfall deficits over the past 30 to 60 days have largely been erased.
Despite the recent rainfall, two areas of abnormal dryness (D0) were maintained. Lago Cidra remains at observational levels, and USGS-monitored wells in parts of southern Puerto Rico continue to range from observational to critical levels.
On St. Croix, most locations were fairly wet again this week. According to CoCoRaHs observations, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.66 inches in west-central St. Croix to 3.49 in the east. At East Hill, 2.41 inches of rain were observed. Precipitation anomalies over the last few months out to a year are mostly neutral or positive now. Depth to water at the well-monitoring site has not significantly risen, though the recent drop in well levels appears to have been halted in the last 10 days or so. Given the wetter weather from the past few weeks and the making up of short- and long-term rainfall deficits, conditions have improved to normal on St. Croix. On St. John, reported rainfall amounts ranged from 1.45 to 2.55 inches. Depth-to-water at the Susannaberg Well came up by a little over a foot this week. Rainfall anomalies from the past few months to year are now mostly near or above normal. Given the improved well level and alleviated rainfall deficits, conditions have improved to normal on St. John. On St. Thomas, reported rainfall amounts ranged from 1.42 to 2.17 inches this week. The last month has had well-above-normal rainfall, though the last three months are still drier than normal. Water levels have also risen in the last week by 2-3 feet at the Grade School 3 well. Given the recent rainfall and improved groundwater conditions, but remaining rainfall deficits at the three-month mark, conditions on St. Thomas were improved to short-term abnormal dryness.
Conditions worsened across parts of southern Alaska this week. Little to no snowfall was observed across portions of the upper Kuskokwim River valley, where precipitation during the past week was minimal, and many locations received well below-normal amounts. As a result, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded northeastward in the upper Kuskokwim River valley.
Farther south, a small area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced southwest of McGrath. Recent ERA5-Land snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly data show continued deficits in this area, with snowpack well below seasonal expectations. While temperatures were mixed across the region, the lack of recent snowfall combined with below-normal SWE supported the targeted degradation.
Hawaii experienced a very wet and windy period this week, driven by persistent strong trade winds that brought rainfall along windward slopes. Molokai, Maui and the Big Island received the highest totals, with widespread 4 to 10 inches of rain and isolated amounts near 15 inches at lower elevations according to NOAA/NSSL MRMS, while heavy snow fell at the highest elevations of the Big Island. Rainfall amounts exceeded 30 inches at Laupahoehoe on the Big Island, with 23.22 inches at Waikamoi on Maui.
As a result, one-category improvements were made along the windward sides of the islands, where repeated rainfall (and high-elevation snow) supported short-term hydrologic recovery. Localized impacts from saturated soils, including a few landslides and flooding, were reported, while leeward areas remained largely unchanged due to continued trade-wind rainfall shadowing.
American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Pago Pago reported at least 1.31 inches of rainfall this week, while at least 0.79 inches were reported at Siufaga Ridge and 1.07 inches were reported at Toa Ridge.
At least 1.6 inches of rainfall were reported this week at Koror, with several days of data missing. Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.
The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, as all four monitored islands received sufficient rainfall. Guam reported 3.84 inches of rain, Rota reported 1.92 inches of rain, Tinian reported 2.29 inches of rain and Saipan reported 1.83 inches.
Short-term abnormal dryness developed in Yap this week, where 1.69 inches of rain fell, marking the fourth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rainfall. Given that early January was wetter, though, conditions are likely not yet close to moderate or worse drought. Woleai remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, where 1.06 inches of rain fell this week, following 3.02 inches last week. Chuuk remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 2.48 inches of rain fell this week. Lukunor also remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 1.73 inches of rain fell this week. Given a fairly dry last three weeks there, conditions are likely approaching abnormal dryness. Conditions remained normal in Nukuoro, where 4.81 inches of rain were reported this week. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Kapingamarangi this week, though conditions have likely improved some given 2.39 inches of rain that fell there this week. Normal conditions continued in Pohnpei, where 4.74 inches of rain were reported. Short-term moderate drought continued this week on Pingelap, where only 0.44 inches of rain were reported. Conditions in Kosrae remained normal, where 3.11 inches of rain were reported. No Drought Monitor depictions were made in Fananu or Ulithi due to a lack of data availability.
Conditions remained normal in Kwajalein this week, where 1.8 inches of rain were reported. Conditions also remained normal in Ailinglaplap, where 3.59 inches of rain fell this week after a couple drier prior weeks. In Jaluit, conditions remained normal this week after 2.8 inches of rain fell. Conditions in Utirik degraded to severe short-term drought, where no rain was reported this week. Short-term moderate drought also continued on Wotje, where only 1.22 inches of rain have fallen to start February. Mili reported 3.66 inches of rain this week, and conditions remained normal there. Conditions also remained normal in Majuro, where 1.89 inches of rain fell this week.
Looking Ahead
Over the next five to seven days (Feb. 12–17), a widespread and active precipitation pattern is forecast across much of the western and southern U.S. The heaviest totals are expected from eastern Texas into Arkansas, where widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with locally higher totals possible. Additional areas of 1 to 3 inches are expected across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, central Gulf Coast, and into portions of the Southeast. Farther west, widespread precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, and into the central and northern Rockies, where liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in favored terrain. Lighter but still meaningful precipitation is forecast across portions of the Midwest and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In contrast, much of the northern Plains is expected to remain relatively dry during this period.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., including the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. The strongest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered over the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. Alaska favors below-normal temperatures across much of the mainland, while Hawaii is favored to see above-normal temperatures.
The CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western United States, including California, the Great Basin, and the northern and central Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier from southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Much of the central United States, including portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, is favored to see near-normal precipitation during this period.