Friday, December 19, 2014
Current U.S. Drought Monitor

NOTE: To view regional drought conditions, click on map above. State maps can be accessed from regional maps

The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is Tuesday at 7 a.m. EST. The maps, which are based on analysis of the data, are released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

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The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced in partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

For local details and impacts, please contact your State Climatologist or Regional Climate Center

National Drought Summary for Dec 16, 2014

Summary

Strong storm systems brought heavy, widespread precipitation to both the Northeast and West Coasts, providing beneficial moisture and drought relief to both regions. In the West, a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern North Pacific Ocean funneled several storm systems into the Pacific Coast that tapped subtropical moisture. The week’s greatest precipitation amounts fell on central and northern California where many locations totaled 4 to 12 inches. This precipitation came after the previous week’s moderate to heavy precipitation in the same area, continuing a wet pattern from northern California northward into the Pacific Northwest since mid-October. The wet weather finally allowed ample runoff (while producing stream and river flooding) that raised major reservoir levels (as of Dec. 16) in most of northern and central California by 6 to 10 percentage points from normal capacity (compared to Nov. 28 values). However, major California reservoir capacities still remained below normal, and due to above-normal temperatures accompanying these Pacific storms, more rain than snow has fallen on the lower elevations of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, producing well below normal snow pack and water content this Water Year (since Oct. 1). Only the highest elevations have seen abundant snows. Fortunately, the West still has plenty of time this winter to build its snow pack for spring and summer stream runoff. Early in the week, a developing storm off the mid-Atlantic Coast looped back eastward, then tracked slowly northward, and eventually stalled over New England, dropping more than 1.5 inches of precipitation from eastern New York state eastward, with locally more than 4 inches in Maine. Late in the period, a storm system in the Nation’s mid-section brought widespread light to moderate precipitation to most of the Plains and Midwest, finally bringing welcome moisture to the central Plains and western Corn Belt after a very dry November and early December. Weekly temperatures averaged well above normal in the western two-thirds of the Nation and in New England, while the Southeast experienced subnormal temperatures.

Central and Southern Plains

The storm system previously mentioned in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest brought beneficial and welcome precipitation to the southern Great Plains (northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma) and central Plains (eastern and northern Kansas and most of Nebraska). The greatest totals (between 1.5 and 2 inches, locally to 2.7 inches) fell along the eastern Red River Valley, with 1 to 1.5 inches occurring in eastern Oklahoma, eastern and northwestern Kansas, and central and eastern Nebraska, with most locations (even Nebraska) seeing this precipitation fall as rain on unfrozen ground. With winter precipitation totals typically low, this was a significant moisture event. But due to the very dry autumn weather, this event was not quite enough to erase D0 over most of the central Plains; however, where November was wetter (Kansas southward) and this event had higher totals (at least an inch), a slight 1-category improvement was made. This included northwestern and eastern Kansas, southeastern Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas. In contrast, minimal or no precipitation fell on western and southern sections of Texas, and some slight deterioration was warranted in Texas in the northwestern Panhandle, along the southeastern coast near Matagorda Bay, and northeast of Houston.

Hawaii and Puerto Rico

In Hawaii, occasional light to moderate showers (daily totals generally 0.1 to 0.5 inches, locally to 3 inches) fell on the windward sides of the islands while little or no rain was measured on most leeward locations. With last week’s expansion or development of D0 to the island’s leeward side and adequate rainfall on the windward sides, no change in depiction was made to the state this week.

In Puerto Rico, light amounts (less than 0.5 inches) were reported on the small remaining D0(SL) area along the south-central coast. Although surplus rains fell during August and November and mitigated most of the island’s dryness and drought, lingering deficits from a relatively quiet Atlantic and Caribbean tropical season still remained in central sections (north of the current area). This area will be closely monitored as continued dry weather could easily slip central Puerto Rico back into D0, although average stream flows are currently near-normal.

New England and mid-Atlantic:

A developing storm off the mid-Atlantic made an unusual loop back toward the coast, and then slowly tracked northward and intensified, dropping widespread moderate to heavy precipitation (1.5 to 4.7 inches), mostly rain, on New England, especially in eastern sections. As a result, most shortages out to 90-days and even 6-months were eliminated or significantly reduced, and with USGS average stream flows (at 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-days) in the above (76-90) or much above (>90) percentile categories in eastern sections, D0 was erased from eastern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and most of southern Maine and New Hampshire. The small D1 in Ulster County, NY, was also removed due to an AHPS (radar) dry bias, with ACIS (in-situ) values at 60- and 90-days near normal. With Massachusetts getting soaked, the state removed its Drought Advisory from their Southeast and Cape Cod/Islands regions. In contrast, areas to the west and south received less precipitation, so D0 remained in most of Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, and western New York. In contrast, short-term deficiencies (at 60- and 90-days) in northwestern upstate New York called for the development of abnormal dryness where ACIS ground-based data showed 60-day precipitation at 60-75 percent of normal, and 7-, 14-, and 28-day USGS average stream flows in the below normal (10-24 percentile) range. Elsewhere, light precipitation (less than 0.5 inches) and near to below normal temperatures were enough to maintain conditions in the mid-Atlantic.

Northern Plains and upper Midwest

After a rather dry November and early December, a storm system developed over the Southwest and intensified over the south-central Plains while tracking northeastward, bringing welcome moisture not only to the southern and central Plains, but also to parts of eastern South Dakota, Iowa, and much of Minnesota. The precipitation (0.25 to 0.75 inches, locally to 1.2 inches) was enough to stave off any deterioration in the region, and was a nice moisture bonus where the soils were not frozen (and since December normals are quite low). In the western Dakotas where little or no precipitation fell, short and medium-term surpluses existed, so dryness was not a factor. Accordingly, status-quo was applied here.

Southeast

Subnormal precipitation has persisted across the southern and western sections of the Southeast (especially the central Gulf Coast region) while near to above normal totals have fallen on most areas to the north and east during the past several months. With such low amounts the past 30-days (0.5 to 2 inches), 60-days (1 to 4 inches), and 90-days (2 to 8 inches), and relatively large precipitation normals, short-term deficits have quickly accumulated the past 3 months. The greatest deficiencies were concentrated along the central Gulf Coast (southern sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, extreme western Florida Panhandle) where 2-4, 4-8, and 6-12 inch deficits were found at 30-, 60-, and 90-days, respectively. Just to the north, short-term deficits have also accumulated, but not to such the large extent. In addition, USGS average stream flows at instantaneous, 1-, 7-, and 14-days are depicting percentiles in the lower tenth (much below normal), with a few record low values. Accordingly, D2 was expanded along the central Gulf Coast, D1 increased into south-central Louisiana, south-central Mississippi, extreme western Florida Panhandle, and a bit in east-central Georgia, and D0 pushed northward into northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and central Georgia, and added to southwestern North Carolina. D0 and a bit of D1 was removed from north-central Florida northeastward into south-central Georgia as 5-10 inches of rain the past 30 days was enough to warrant its removal even out to 90-days. Little or no rain fell on Florida and along the southern Atlantic Coast, but that area had been wet in the short-term, so no D0 was added.

Southwest

With most of this week’s significant precipitation concentrated in the Far West (e.g. California), only light amounts (0.1 to 0.5 inches, locally to 1.2 inches) fell on most of the Four-Corners States. Toward the east, little or no precipitation was reported in eastern New Mexico and western Texas. After the previous week’s light to moderate totals in Arizona and northwestern New Mexico, and a rather robust and long-lasting Southwest monsoon, surplus precipitation still lingered at 90- and 180-days across much of the region, thus no deterioration was needed. This is fortunate as the WYTD (since Oct. 1) basin average precipitation and SWE are both below normal, ranging from 50-70 percent of normal (precipitation) and 10-80 percent of normal (Dec. 15 SWE), with conditions closer to normal in central Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.

Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys

Similar to the Southeast (but not quite to its extent), mostly light precipitation (0.5 inches or less) fell on parts of the western Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, also continuing a short-term pattern of subnormal precipitation out to 90-days. Shortages accumulated at 30-, 60-, and 90-days from central Arkansas northeastward into western Kentucky were 2-4, 4-6, and 4-8 inches, respectively, as normals are a bit lower as compared to locations farther to the south. In contrast, enough rain (about 1.5 inches) fell on northwestern Louisiana from the south-central Plains storm system, and along with prior November rains, D0 was removed. However, as mentioned in the Southeast summary, drier weather over the rest of the state was enough to expand D0 across the rest of north Louisiana.

The West

Two consecutive weeks of widespread heavy (7-day totals of 4 to 12 inches) precipitation, augmented by above-normal autumn precipitation, produced major stream and river flooding in north-central California. The flooding on the Sacramento River was the highest since Dec. 31, 2005. The runoff led to good capacity increases (6 to 10 percentage points) in major reservoirs across northern and central California; however, they were still below the historical averages for Dec. 16. For example, the Nov. 28 Trinity, Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and San Luis Lakes percent of capacity was 23, 23, 26, 28, and 23; on Dec. 16, they increased to 29, 32, 33, 38, and 33 percent, respectively, but the Dec. 16 historical averages were 44, 53, 54, 79, and 52 percent. Based upon historical storage data, almost every major reservoir saw a 1-category drought improvement in their levels during the first half of December, and combined with wet start to the Water Year (and December), a broad 1-category improvement was made in north-central and along the central coast of California (D4 to D3, or 0-2 to 2-5 percentile). In addition, the mountains east of San Diego and south of San Bernardino in southern California received between 6-12 inches of December precipitation, improving overall moisture conditions there from D3 to D2 levels. Lastly, along the border of California and Arizona, a reassessment of conditions noted surpluses at 30- and 180-days, hence D0 was extended northward to the tip of southern Nevada.

Unfortunately, remaining areas to the south and east of the 1-category improvements were unchanged as the storms precipitation amounts were lower (but welcome), the autumn months were quite dry, runoff was minor to non-existent (albeit a few mudslides in fire-scarred slopes), and not surprisingly, the major reservoir levels in the south remained static. Furthermore, the rain shadow effect was notable on the Nevada side where much less moisture made it over the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Also, temperatures accompanying the storms have been above-normal, leading to more rain than snow at the higher elevations (e.g. Sierra Nevada). As a result, the snow water equivalents (SWE) for the northern, central, and southern Sierras were only at 43, 43, and 63 percent of normal for Dec. 16, which was actually higher than SWE values farther north in the Cascades of Oregon and Washington (10-30 percent). Fortunately, there are still many months left in their normal wet season for the Far West to build-up their snow pack, even though the Water Year-to-Date (WYTD) precipitation was at or slightly above normal in the Pacific Northwest. In north-central Washington, the past few months have been wet enough to justify a 1-category improvement to D1 as WYTD basin average precipitation was 112 to 120 percent. Similarly, surplus precipitation has fallen on extreme northern Idaho during the past 6-months to justify removal of D0. Elsewhere across the West and Rockies, enough precipitation (0.2 to 1 inch) fell from these Pacific storms to prevent any further deterioration, but not enough to warrant improvement.

In summary, a wet December (to date) has provided California a foothold for drought recovery, but 3 straight winters of subnormal precipitation will take time (possibly several consecutive wet winters) to fully recharge the reservoir levels and subsoil moisture back to normal. With several more months still left in the wet season, it is possible that additional storms similar to the ones that just occurred will continue to chip away at the long-term hydrological drought, and the addition of lower temperatures would help build the snow pack. “Cautious optimism, but still a long way to go” would be the very short summary for this week’s California drought picture.

Looking Ahead

For the upcoming 5-day period (December 18-22), heavy precipitation (up to 10 inches in northwest Oregon) is forecast for the Pacific Northwest (and southward to northwestern California) and northern Rockies, with lighter amounts in the central Rockies. A southern storm system should bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation (1 to 4 inches) from central Texas eastward to Georgia and the Carolinas (including the expanding drought area in the Southeast), and lighter amounts along the Northeast Coast and in the central Great Plains. Mostly dry weather is expected in the Southwest (including southern California), High Plains, upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and southern Florida. Near to above normal temperatures should envelop most of the lower 48 States, with the greatest positive departures in the northern Rockies and Plains and upper Midwest.

For the ensuing 5-day period (December 23-27), the CPC 6-10 day outlooks tilt the odds toward subnormal precipitation for eastern and southeastern Alaska, and from southern Oregon and California southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley (lower Delta). Favorable chances of above median precipitation are expected in western Alaska, across the northern tier of States, and in the eastern quarter of the Nation, with the highest odds in the Great Lakes region and Northeast. Above median temperatures are expected in Alaska, the Far West, Southwest, and New England, with subnormal readings favored in the northern Plains and Florida.


Author(s):
David Miskus, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

View a printable narrative here.

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