Short-term moderate drought developed in the Lower Kobuk River Valley following continued drier-than-normal weather across large portions of the state this week. Abnormal dryness also expanded near the moderate drought. Low early summer rainfall amounts and only spotty recent rains led to abnormal dryness developing in portions of south-central Alaska. Cooler-than-normal temperatures occurred across most of Alaska this week, with most areas finishing the week 3-9 degrees below normal, with some locations finishing closer to normal.
Drier weather conditions continued this week on the leeward sides of the islands of Hawaii, though streamflow conditions and precipitation amounts are close enough to normal in most areas that conditions have not yet worsened. Abnormal dryness continued this week in parts of the north-central Big Island and in portions of central Maui. Temperatures in Hawaii this week were mostly either near normal or a degree or two above normal.
The big news item this week for the western North Pacific is Super Typhoon 09W (Bavi). It began as a tropical depression in the vicinity of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) early in the drought week, and underwent rapid intensification on July 3. It was accompanied by the emergence of a well-defined eye and central dense overcast. On July 4, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor upgraded Bavi to a (Category 5-equivalent) super typhoon, with estimated 1-minute winds of 165 mph. After a partial eyewall replacement cycle, Bavi’s sustained winds further increased to 180 mph. The eye of the super typhoon passed extremely close to the north side of Rota (in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) becoming one of the strongest typhoons to affect the island. By Monday, July 6, the storm center was located about 165 nautical miles northwest of Andersen AFB (Guam) as it slowly receded from the region. Guam International Airport measured 12.31 inches of rain as of 4pm (July 6), a new daily record.
The satellite-based precipitation estimate map (for the week ending 12z July 7, 2026) showcased well-defined elongated banding across the USAPI domain north of the equator, associated largely with what was Super Typhoon 09W (Bavi). The primary rain concentration associated with Bavi (<8 inches) extends from about 136E to 160E and is approximately bounded by 10N and 17N latitude. This encompasses a huge portion of the USAPI domain north of the equator. Over the South Pacific, the light rainfall amounts depicted on the 7-day IMERG imagery are quite low (<0.5-inch), compared to the ground-based observations that run from 2.72 inches to 4.60 inches. Given the lack of available data and other information regarding this situation it is difficult to say why this is the case, other than convective rainfall may have been very localized and happened to fall near and over the monitoring stations.
There are no dryness nor drought designations anywhere in the monitored locations across the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands.
It has been a very wet week for Guam and parts of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) thanks to Super Typhoon Bavi. According to available preliminary data, Dededo (the largest and most populous village on the island of Guam) received the lion’s share of the torrential rainfall, with 13.02 inches reported on July 6, and 17.22 inches for the weekly total. The Guam International Airport reported 12.64 inches of precipitation on July 6th alone, and 16.78 inches for the week. Each month since last August (2025) has registered “wet”, meaning the reception of at least 4-inches of rain (the minimum monthly amount needed to meet most water needs). Other available rain gauge data included Agat (5.87 inches, 5 days of data), Saipan (2.82 inches, 6 days of data), and Rota Airport (0.65-inch, 5 days). These rainfall amounts may be significantly underdone and are considered very preliminary, as some of the gauges may have been damaged during the passage of Bavi.
In the Republic of Palau, a “wet” week was observed, with both reporting stations exceeding the weekly minimum rainfall of 2 inches. WSO Palau (Airai) reported 3.20 inches (6 days of data), and Koror measured 2.06 inches of precipitation (6 days of data), according to xmACIS2 data.
Over the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), precipitation amounts ranged from a maximum of 5.63 inches (6 days of data) at Pohnpei to a minimum of 0.09-inch (5-days) at Woleai. Intermediate values included 2.12 inches at Chuuk, 1.95 inches at Lukunoch, 1.63 inches at Yap Island, 1.50 inches (5 days) at Kosrae, 0.84-inch (6 days) at Kapingamarangi, 0.44-inch (6 days) at North Fanif, and 0.42-inch (6 days) at Nukuoro. Therefore, only two stations (Pohnpei and Chuuk) surpassed the 2-inch minimum requirement for weekly rainfall. A number of other stations (Rumung, Gilman, Ulithi, Fananu, and Pingelap) did not have enough data this week to do a proper analysis.
Precipitation amounts across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) ranged from 3.08 inches at Kwajalein down to 0.48-inch at Mili. Intermediate values included 2.51 inches of rain at Ailinglaplap, 1.23 inches at Wotje, 1.18 inches at Majuro, 0.89-inch at Utirik, and 0.57-inch at Jaluit. In terms of recent wetness, Kwajalein has been “wet” (8-inches or more for the month) for the last three consecutive months (April through June), Ailinglaplap has been “wet” since February 2026, Jaluit from January through May 2026, and with one exception Majuro has been wet every month since last August (2025). The exception was February 2026, when 6.72 inches of precipitation was recorded.
In the South Pacific, the three reporting sites on the island of Tutuila in American Samoa exceeded the 2-inch minimum weekly rainfall amount. Siufaga Ridge received the most precipitation this past drought week with 4.61 inches reported, Toa Ridge measured 2.97 inches, and Pago Pago came in with 2.72 inches of rain (with only 2 days of data available).
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