Mostly dry weather occurred this week across the Great Plains, Minnesota and Wisconsin, the south-central U.S. and the Southwest. The northern half of California, western Oregon, western Washington, the northern Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana received moderate to heavy precipitation amounts. From northern California northward into the Pacific Northwest, amounts this week were locally over 3 inches. Locally higher precipitation amounts fell in the Northeast and in portions of the Great Lakes region. This included heavy lake-effect snow in north-central and northwest Indiana. Spotty rainfall amounts of over half an inch fell across the Southeast, but most of the region experienced a dry week. Drier weather in parts of the Great Plains and south-central U.S. led to widespread degradations, especially in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Heavy precipitation in Oregon and Idaho led to improvements in both states. Montana was split with improvement in the west and degradation in north-central areas, which continued a recent dry spell. Mostly drier weather in the Southeast led to degradations in Florida and southern Georgia and portions of Virginia. In northeast Illinois, northwest Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia and much of New England, improvements occurred after recent precipitation.
Over an inch of precipitation fell this week across much of New York and northern New England, with a few spots receiving over 2 inches. Mostly short-term precipitation deficits improved as a result, leading to widespread improvements in ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in these areas. In northwestern Maine, lighter precipitation amounts fell and short-term deficits grew; severe drought expanded there as a result. In central and southern West Virginia, recent precipitation helped to improve streamflow and precipitation deficits, and drought severity lessened there. Temperatures in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were mostly 2-6 degrees warmer than normal, while temperatures across the rest of the Northeast were mostly within 2 degrees of normal.
Temperatures in the Southeast were mostly above normal this week, with many locations finishing the week 2-6 degrees warmer than normal. Most locations finished the week with less than a half inch of precipitation, with some local exceptions. The dry and warm weather this week led to worsening soil moisture and short-term precipitation deficits in southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, where moderate, severe and extreme drought expanded. Moderate drought also expanded near Tampa Bay, where soil moisture and precipitation deficits grew and streamflow dropped. Streamflow levels remained low in south-central Virginia, where short-term precipitation deficits also grew and moderate drought expanded. Farther west, moderate drought improved in southwest Virginia, where soil moisture and streamflow improved after recent rainfall.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across most of the South this week. Temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were especially warm, with many areas in these states finishing the week 4-8 degrees above normal. Parts of southwest Texas were even warmer, with some sites finishing the week more than 10 degrees above normal. Most of the South remained dry this week, though a few parts of central and eastern Tennessee received over a half inch of precipitation. Degradations to abnormal dryness and drought were widespread from the southern half of Oklahoma to southwest Arkansas, and from central and eastern Texas into parts of Louisiana. Short-term drought impacts were the big story in southern Oklahoma, where short-term precipitation deficits grew and soil moisture and pond levels dropped and vegetation struggled. Streamflow levels struggled in portions of central and southern Texas, while soil moisture levels also dropped in south Texas amid unusually high evaporative demand for the time of year. Short-term precipitation deficits also drove some degradation in areas of abnormal dryness and moderate and severe drought in Louisiana.
Precipitation amounts varied across the Midwest this week. Lake-effect snow fell in heavier amounts in northern Indiana, northeast Illinois, southwest Lower Michigan and portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Over half an inch of precipitation fell across much of Ohio and central and eastern Kentucky. Temperatures varied from generally 1-4 degrees below normal in northeast Wisconsin and Michigan to 2-6 degrees above normal in southern Missouri and western Kentucky. Temperatures were variable across the rest of the region, though most areas were within 4 degrees of normal. Heavier precipitation amounts recently in north-central Ohio led to improvements where streamflow and short-term precipitation deficits improved. Heavy snowfall in northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois led to improvement in soil moisture and precipitation deficits and improvements in drought and abnormal dryness. Farther south in east-central Illinois, severe and extreme drought expanded where streamflow levels dropped and short-term precipitation deficits worsened. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in south-central and southwest Wisconsin and abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded there. Moderate drought also expanded in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where short-term precipitation deficits grew alongside declining soil moisture levels. Moderate drought expanded in a few spots in southeast Missouri, where recent dry weather added to short-term precipitation deficits amid poor soil moisture and streamflow levels.
Temperatures in the eastern edge of the High Plains area remained mostly within a couple degrees of normal, as a strong cold front moved into the central U.S. near the end of the period. Otherwise, most of the region was warmer than normal, especially western Nebraska and central and western portions of Colorado and Wyoming, where temperatures from 4-8 degrees above normal were common this week. Some precipitation, generally under a half inch liquid equivalent, fell from central South Dakota to northeast Nebraska. Precipitation exceeding a half inch also fell in northwest Wyoming in the vicinity of Yellowstone National Park and in a section of the Black Hills of South Dakota. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather was the rule across the region. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in parts of eastern Nebraska, where abnormal dryness expanded in coverage north and northwest of Lincoln. Portions of western Nebraska and adjacent southeast Wyoming and Colorado continued to dry as well, and abnormal dryness and some moderate drought grew in these areas. In south-central Colorado, localized degradations were also due in part to effects from longer-term precipitation deficits.
Temperatures were above normal across the region. Southeast California, Nevada, Utah and southern New Mexico were generally the warmest compared to normal, with many spots in these areas finishing the week 6-10 degrees above normal. Parts of the northwest U.S. saw moderate to heavy precipitation amounts this week, while most areas from central California southward and eastward were dry. Many parts of northwest Montana and northern Idaho received half an inch to 2 inches of precipitation this week. Eastern Washington mostly received over a half inch of precipitation, while western Washington, western Oregon and north-central and northwest California received heavier amounts ranging from 2 to locally over 5 inches of precipitation. Recent precipitation helped to improve streamflow and precipitation deficits across much of Idaho, leading to widespread improvements in drought conditions. Severe also improved across much of western Montana as a result of recent precipitation events. Severe drought was also removed in northwest Oregon after recent heavy precipitation improved streamflow levels and lessened short- and long-term precipitation deficits. In north-central Montana, drought conditions worsened as weather stayed mostly dry, leading to larger short-term precipitation deficits and low streamflow levels.
Rainfall this week in Puerto Rico was generally below normal in central and eastern parts of the island, while a few spots near the west coast received at or above an inch above normal. Temperatures in eastern Puerto Rico were mostly 1-3 degrees above normal. Abnormal dryness continued in portions of southeast Puerto Rico.
The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of abnormal dryness or drought this week. Windswept Beach on St. John reported only 0.23 inches of rain along with CoCoRaHS observer reports of 0.59 and 0.32 inches elsewhere on the island. On St. Thomas, rainfall amounts reported by CoCoRaHS observers were about an inch or less. St. Croix observer reports were a mix between 0.14 and 0.62 inches of rainfall across the island averaging 0.45 inches.
Alaska remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Weekly precipitation anomalies varied widely across the state, though generally, southeast and east-central Alaska had above-normal precipitation amounts, while central and west-central Alaska tended to be drier than normal. Temperatures soared to 5-15 degrees above normal in north-central and east-central Alaska, while above-normal temperatures were also common in southeast Alaska to a lesser degree. Colder-than-normal temperatures were found in much of southwest Alaska and in the Aleutian Islands, with some spots in these areas finishing the week 5-10 degrees below normal.
A few localized improvements occurred in windward areas of the Big Island and east Maui, where recent heavy rainfall amounts led to improved streamflow levels. Heavier rainfall was also reported in some windward parts of Molokai and Oahu this week. Far eastern portions of the Big Island were mostly drier than normal, and severe drought continued there. Temperature observations in Hawaii were mostly within 1.5 degrees of normal, with readings on the Big Island mostly on the warm side of this range.
At Pago Pago, at least 2.01 inches of rain have fallen this week, with three days missing from the analysis. At Toa Ridge, 2.25 inches of rain have fallen this week, and 0.12 inches of rainfall was reported at Siufaga Ridge. American Samoa remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.
At Koror, 2.18 inches of rainfall was reported with two days missing, so Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.
The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Rainfall amounts recorded this week included up to 3.12 inches at Guam, 1.68 inches at Rota, 1.04 inches at Tinian and up to 2.48 inches at Saipan.
Short-term severe drought continued this week in Kapingamarangi. Another week of beneficial rainfall totaled 1.32 inches this week but was less than the required 2 inches of rain a week needed for water demand. Yellowing vegetation was reported on the island. Due to missing data, Fananu, Ulithi and Pingelap did not receive USDM designations. All other islands in the Federated States of Micronesia remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Yap reported 4.04 inches of rain with two days missing. Woleai reported 5.99 inches of rain, with one day also missing there. Chuuk reported 1.41 inches of rain with two days missing. Lukunor reported 2.37 inches of rain with five days missing. Nukuoro reported 0.41 inches of rain with two days missing. Pohnpei reported 2.03 inches of rain with two days missing. Kosrae reported 5.15 inches of rain with one day missing.
The Republic of the Marshall Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Kwajalein reported 5.79 inches of rainfall with one day missing. Ailinglapalap reported 2.37 inches of rain with two missing days. In Jaluit, 6.05 inches of rain was reported with one day missing. In Majuro, 3.61 inches of rain were reported with one day missing. In Mili, 2.59 inches of rainfall were reported. In Utirik and Wotje, rainfall amounts were lower with 0.24 inches and 1.03 inches respectively. In Utirik, given that a little under 8
inches of rain were reported in October and only 0.58 inches of rain being recorded for November, any developing further dryness there will be monitored.
Looking Ahead
From the evening of Nov. 12 through Nov. 17, the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center is forecasting heavy precipitation to fall across parts of the western U.S. Precipitation amounts from 3-5 inches (locally higher) may fall across large portions of California, especially the southwest coastal areas and portions of the Sierra Nevada. Heavy precipitation amounts from 2-5 inches (locally higher) are also anticipated in parts of northwest Washington and the Olympic Peninsula. Over 0.75 inches of precipitation is also forecast in southeast California, southern Nevada, portions of western and central Arizona and southwest Utah. A few other locales may receive an inch or more of precipitation, including the San Juan Mountains in southwest Colorado and parts of the northern Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana. Much drier weather is forecast across most of the rest of the Contiguous U.S. for this period, though some parts of New York and New England may receive over a half inch of precipitation.
For the period from Nov. 18-22, the NWS Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation across much of the Contiguous U.S., especially from the Southwest northeastward to the Lower Ohio River Valley. Drier-than-normal weather is slightly favored in northeast parts of Maine, while near-normal precipitation amounts are most likely in the Florida Peninsula. Near-normal temperatures are favored for New England, while elsewhere, colder-than-normal temperatures are likelier west of the Continental Divide, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored to the east of the Continental Divide. Forecaster confidence in warmer-than-normal weather is highest from the Gulf Coast north to the Lower Midwest and southern Great Plains, and near and west of Lake Superior. Above-normal precipitation and temperatures are favored in Hawaii. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is also favored, with the strongest chances being in the southwest part of the state. Above-normal temperatures are favored in most areas of Alaska, except for the far northwest, where near-normal temperatures are expected.