The very wet fall continued across the southwest quarter of the contiguous U.S. to end October. Based on the additional heavy precipitation (more than 1 inch) from October 27-November 2 and a positive shift in the long-term metrics since September, a broad 1-category improvement was made to the Southwest and Great Basin. Although short-term drought has ended, lingering long-term drought remains designated for parts of these areas. The remnants of Hurricane Vance from the East Pacific brought drought-improving precipitation to western and central Texas. At the start of November, heavy precipitation prompted improvements to the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Drought coverage continued its late summer and fall decline across Florida. Drought expanded and intensified for parts of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Alaska and Hawaii remain drought-free, while drought continues to improve across Puerto Rico.
Based on the 30 to 60-day SPI, NASA SPoRT soil moisture, and USGS 28-day streamflow, a 1-category degradation was made across parts of northwestern New Jersey, northern Pennsylvania, the Finger Lakes of New York, and New England. Due in part to the lack of recovery from the 2025 drought, 28-day streamflows are in the lowest 5th percentile which supports the addition of D3 in the North Woods of Maine. Dx coverage remained nearly steady for Delaware, Maryland, southern New Jersey, and West Virginia.
Heavy to excessive rainfall (2-6 inches, or more) drenched much of the central to southern Florida Peninsula with the heaviest totals (more than 10 inches) along the Atlantic coast. Due to the recent heavy rainfall and using NDMC’s short and long-term blends, a 1 to 2-category improvement was necessary for the Florida Peninsula. However, D1 remains warranted near Bradenton and Fort Myers where 28-day streamflows are below the 20th percentile. In addition, lower weekly rainfall amounts led to continuing D2 for parts of the Everglades. Please note that short-term drought has ended for Florida with only lingering long-term drought. Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits and worsening soil moisture resulted in 1-category degradations in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. Heavy precipitation (more than 2 inches) led to a 1-category across the northwest corner of Alabama.
The remnants of Hurricane Vance in the East Pacific brought heavy rainfall to western and central Texas. A 1-category improvement was made roughly to areas that received more than 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall. Also, SPIs at various time scales were considered. The unusually wet fall continued in New Mexico where a broad 1-category improvement was necessary. Additional improvements may be needed in subsequent weeks to be more consistent with long-term metrics. Please note that short-term drought has ended for New Mexico. Near or more than one inch of precipitation supported improvements across the western third of Oklahoma. Since this precipitation occurred on November 2nd, additional improvements may be made to a greater coverage of Oklahoma next week once a full assessment of the latest metrics is completed. The D2, D3, and D4 coverage across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee is generally consistent with SPEIs at various time scales and soil moisture indicators. Impact reports from Mississippi include poor to very poor pastures along with dry farm ponds. The lack of precipitation the past two months (60-day deficits of more than 4 inches) coupled with above-normal temperatures (+6 to 10 degrees F since early September) has led to rapid intensifying drought across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy precipitation (1.5 to 2 inches, locally more) resulted in a 1-category improvement to southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi, while a 1-category degradation was warranted for northeastern Tennessee.
Widespread D2 to D3 continues across southern Missouri and 60 to 90-day SPEI along with soil moisture supported an expansion of those drought categories in the southern third of the state. Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits, declining soil moisture, and the NDMC short-term blend resulted in a 1-category degradation across Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Conversely, unusually heavy precipitation (widespread amounts of 1.5 inches+) for this time of year led to a broad 1-category improvement for much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Please note that short-term drought has ended for nearly all of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Widespread precipitation (0.5 to 2 inches, locally more) resulted in 1-category improvements to the western third Colorado along with parts of the Northern to Central Great Plains. Recent precipitation and the “convergence of evidence” supported discontinuing the D3 in most of the Nebraska Panhandle.
A low pressure system at an unusually low latitude for this time of year resulted in anomalously wet conditions across southern California and the Desert Southwest over Halloween weekend. During the past 60 days, precipitation has averaged well above normal (200 to 400%, or more) across southern California, southern Nevada, and most of Arizona and Utah. This fall wetness is related in part to the El Nino driven active tropical cyclone season in the East Pacific. Precipitation amounts of more than one inch prompted a 1-category improvement from Arizona north to Nevada, Utah and southeastern Idaho. Please note that short-term drought has ended for the Southwest and Great Basin. Despite multiple short-term metrics on the wet side, long-term drought of varying intensity persists across parts of these areas. Precipitation (0.5 to 1 inch, locally more) this past week led to small improvements for parts of Montana. Drought coverage and intensity remained steady for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Based on recent heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches), a 1-category improvement was made to southern Puerto Rico. However, no changes were warranted for the northeastern interior.
The Drought Monitor depiction this week in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained the same, with short- and long-term exceptional drought on St. Thomas and St. John, and short- and long-term extreme drought on St. Croix. The ongoing dry weather was alleviated slightly on the western reaches of St. Thomas, where rain amounts of 1.49 and 1.75 inches were reported, with lesser amounts farther east (for example, 0.78 inches of rain in the central part of the island). Depth-to-water at Grade School 3 Well rebounded a bit, but given ongoing warmer-than-normal temperatures, further rainfall in coming weeks will be needed for improvements. On and near St. John, rain totals this week ranged from 0.17 to 0.61 inches according to CoCoRaHS observations. At Windswept Beach, May-October rain totaled 10.22 inches, a record low for the site (and more than 3 inches less than the previous record low of 13.93 inches in 1994). The average rainfall for Windswept Beach (from 1984-2025) is 27.8 inches, showing just how dry the last several months have been there. On St. Croix, according to CoCoRaHS observations, rain amounts were generally light, spanning a range of 0.1-0.31 inches.
Alaska became drought-free as of October 27th and no changes were made this past week.
Hawaii remains drought-free with periods of heavy to excessive precipitation during the past few months. D0 is designated across the leeward side of the Big Island.
At Pago Pago Airport this week, 0.44 inches of rain were reported, while totals at Siufaga and Toa ridges were 0.4 and 0.32 inches, respectively. Given continued dry recent weather going back to late September, and the second-driest October on record at Pago Pago, short-term moderate drought was introduced this week.
At Koror, 2.58 inches of rain fell this week, snapping a string of three consecutive drier weeks. However, given record dryness in August and unusually dry weather in September and October, short-term moderate drought remained this week in Palau.
The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Only 0.29 inches of rain fell on Guam, marking two weeks in a row with below 1 inch of rain. Conditions preceding the last two weeks were wet, though the recent dryness will be monitored going forward. On Rota, just 0.13 inches of rain fell, though this followed sufficiently wet conditions for the last 3 months. On Tinian, 1.4 inches of rain were reported this week. On Saipan, 2.41 inches of rain were reported.
Abnormal dryness developed in Yap this week, where 0.18 inches of rain fell, marking three weeks in a row with less than 2 inches of rain. Abnormal dryness also developed on Ulithi, where the week was completely dry. Woleai also fell into abnormal dryness after only 0.2 inches of rain fell this week. Abnormal dryness developed in Chuuk, where only 0.06 inches of rain were reported (though with three days missing from the analysis). Abnormal dryness continued on Lukunor, where 1.23 inches of rain were reported (with two days missing). Abnormal dryness developed on Nukuoro, where 0.66 inches of rain fell this week. Four of the last six weeks on Nukuoro have seen less than an inch of rain. Short-term moderate drought continued in Kapingamarangi, where 1.19 inches of rain fell on Monday, while the rest of the week was dry. Normal conditions continued in Pohnpei, where 1.73 inches of rain fell this week. Abnormal dryness developed on Kosrae, where 0.81 inches of rain fell this week (with one day missing). No Drought Monitor depictions were made for Fananu or Pingelap, as data were not available for either location.
Abnormal dryness developed in Kwajalein this week, where only 0.13 inches of rain fell this week. Abnormal dryness also developed in Ailinglaplap, where 0.35 inches of rain fell this week (with one day missing), marking three weeks in a row with less than 1 inch of rain. Abnormal dryness continued this week in Jaluit, where no rain was reported (though with one day missing). Normal conditions were analysed on Utirik and Wotje, where 2.92 and 0.5 inches of rain were reported at each, respectively, with one day missing at both sites. Normal conditions continued at Majuro, though no rain was reported this week, marking the second consecutive week with less than 1 inch of rain. Abnormal dryness was analysed on Mili, where 1.01 inches of rain were reported (with one day missing).
Looking Ahead
A much drier multi-day period (Nov 5-9) and more typical for fall is forecast for a majority of the lower 48 states. A cold front will trigger a period of wet weather along the East Coast with the heaviest amounts (more than one inch) from the coastal Mid-Atlantic north to southeastern New England. Along the tail end of this front, heavy precipitation may occur across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The only other area forecast to receive significant precipitation is the coastal Pacific Northwest.
By mid-November, there is an increasing chance that an atmospheric river affects the West Coast. The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid Nov 10-14) depicts more than a 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation for much of California and the Pacific Northwest. The largest probabilities (> 70%) are forecast across northern California and southwestern Oregon. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across the Great Basin, Southwest, Rio Grande Valley, and Florida. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across the Northern to Central Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The enhanced Pacific flow strongly favors above-normal temperatures for nearly all of the contiguous U.S. which is typical for a strong El Nino during the fall.