Conditions this week were largely based on where precipitation fell. Storms across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic brought very beneficial rainfall, leading to improvements in eastern Oklahoma, northeast Mississippi, northern Alabama, the Tennessee-North Carolina border, Virginia and northern West Virginia. Outside of this band of precipitation in the center and eastern U.S., conditions continued to deteriorate after weeks of little to no precipitation. Many of the coastal states in the Southeast saw widespread degradation as short-term indicators show deteriorating conditions. High temperatures in many of these areas make conditions worse. Snow in the Northern Rockies and central Montana brought improvements but the rest of the West was not so lucky. Precipitation along coastal mountains kept conditions in Oregon and California unchanged, Nevada and the four-corners region saw conditions continue to deteriorate. Areas of higher elevation are seeing low snowpack for this time of year. Hawaii also saw conditions improve, while Alaska and Puerto Rico remain free of any dry or drought conditions.
Overall, conditions stayed the same in the Northeast, with some areas in West Virginia, western Maryland and southeastern Pennsylvania experiencing minor improvements thanks to the precipitation that passed through this week. New Jersey also saw some improvement in the far northeast. Unfortunately, the rest of the Northeast missed out on the storms this week, leading to Block Island, Rhode Island and Nantucket, Massachusetts degrading to moderate drought.
The southern Southeast missed out on all beneficial precipitation adding on to their weeks (and months for some areas) of dryness. Above-normal temperatures also contributed to deteriorating conditions. Widespread abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions spread across Alabama, Georgia and Florida. Streamflow, soil moisture, lack of precipitation and other precipitation-based indicators are all showing quick drying over the past one to three months. The widespread abnormally dry expansion continued into South Carolina. North Carolina and Virginia did benefit from this week’s precipitation and saw one-category improvements.
Heavy precipitation fell across western Oklahoma into Kentucky, bringing improvements to the few remaining areas of dry or drought conditions. Northwest Oklahoma saw the removal of some abnormal drought along with northeast Mississippi. Western and central Texas, Louisiana and southern Mississippi missed out on the band of heavy precipitation and saw degradations.
This Midwest remained largely unchanged except for a widespread expansion of abnormally dry conditions from central Missouri to west-central Ohio. This area continues to miss out on the storms that brought heavy precipitation to areas just to the south. Abnormally dry conditions expanded eastward in central and southeastern Texas, into southern Louisiana and Mississippi where indicators show drying conditions over the last month or two.
The High Plains once again missed out on the precipitation that moved through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic parts of the U.S. Western Nebraska and Kansas saw degradation as the lack of precipitation continues to affect the area. Colorado also saw degradations. In the far Northeast, abnormally dry conditions expanded from Nebraska and Kansas. Western Colorado continues to see degradations in the Western Slope and San Juan regions. Wyoming did see some extreme drought removal in the northwest and north central areas as snowpack has markedly improved in the non-mountainous areas.
Washington and northwestern Montana saw moderate drought expansion. Despite recent snow accumulation, they are still experiencing large moisture deficits. Conversely, central Idaho into central Montana saw widespread improvements as conditions continue to improve. Idaho has benefited from the recent snow from Boise into the Rocky Mountains into Montana. California remained unchanged this week. Conditions continue to deteriorate across the Four Corners area in the Southwest. Snowpack is below normal for this time of the year and soil moisture and streamflow levels are well below normal.
No changes this week in Puerto Rico.
The U.S. Virgin Islands received decent precipitation over the past week and remain drought-free. Weather observers reported that St. Thomas received 0.82 to 0.99 inches, and the King Airport has already received more precipitation than is normal for all of February. St. John received 0.91 to 1.00 inches, while St. Croix received 0.68 to 1.92 inches, also receiving more rainfall than is normal for the entire month.
The Standardized Precipitation Index indicates normal or wet conditions for St. Thomas and St. John at all time scales. The Vegetation Health Index indicates little vegetation stress. The water level in the well on St. John was dropping at 6.85 feet below the land surface on Feb. 10. The wells on St. Thomas and St. Croix were both rising in recent days in response to recent rainfall.
No changes this week in Alaska
The past week was generally dry, but there was still regrowth from Oahu to the Big Island from the rainy conditions during the last week of January. Streamflow is near to above normal at nearly all locations across the state. One-category improvements were made from Oahu to the Big Island.
The Republic of Palau received ample rain with more than 5 inches at Palau and Koror. Water supplies should be adequate.
The Mariana Islands continued to reflect dryness as Saipan is in D2 and received from 0.66 inches to 1.0 inch at the island’s gauges. Guam and Rota got 0.22 and 0.33 inches, respectively, and both are in D0. These islands need an inch weekly to meet minimum water needs. Grass fires and browning vegetation have been reported in recent weeks.
Conditions are mixed for the Federated States of Micronesia with a few locations receiving ample rainfall, while other locations continued to be dry. Yap remains in D1 and received 0.39 inches. Woleai is in D0 after getting 1.53 inches. Pingelap is also in D0 and received 1.48 inches. Kapingamarangi returned to normal conditions after getting 4.13 and 1.93 inches in recent weeks. Several locations, including Chuuk Lagoon, Kosrae, Lukunor, Nukuoro, and Pohnpei, received 4 inches or more.
Some of the Marshall Islands got abundant rainfall, while Kwajalein remains in D1 and reported 0.72 inches of rain. Mili received ample precipitation in late January, which should be sufficient to meet water needs for a few weeks. The Majuro reservoirs held 26.59 million gallons on Feb. 11 after receiving 6.88 inches of rain in the past week.
American Samoa continues to be in D0 as Pago Pago, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge received 0.23 to 0.74 inches of precipitation. These islands need 2 inches of rain per week to meet minimum water needs.
Looking Ahead
Over the next five to seven days, some coastal areas of the West could see precipitation from the Washington Cascades into most of California. Other higher-elevation areas in the Intermountain West as well as in the Southwest, are also expected to receive some precipitation. Heavy precipitation is expected across the South, Southeast and Northeast where amounts are estimated to reach 1.25 to 5 inches in the lower Ohio River Valley and through Alabama. Once again, much of the Plains, from North Dakota through central-west Texas, are expected to see less than a quarter of an inch of precipitation.
The 6-10 day outlook shows the greatest probability of below-normal temperatures are in the central Midwest. Below-normal temperatures are expected to be below-normal from central Montana to central Texas and all the way into Maine. The best chances of above-normal temperatures will likely be across Alaska and Hawaii. Southern Arizona and southern Florida are expected to stay near normal temperatures. The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation are expected to be across the Gulf Coast from Texas and across the Florida Peninsula. A large swath of the country (Washington towards the Gulf of Mexico) is leaning towards above-normal precipitation. Alaska is also leaning toward above-normal precipitation. Along California’s central and southern coast precipitation are expected to be drier –than normal, and to a lesser extent, Arizona, Nevada, and southwest New Mexico. The northern Midwest and Great Lakes region, along with Hawaii, are expected to have near or just below normal precipitation.